Divide and conquer
The US National Security Strategy, released last week, is an exceptional document. It lays bare many of the radical shifts in US policy that we have already witnessed by 2025. It has profound implications for European society and its economy.
It confirms the US's abandonment of multilateralism. It reflects its belief that the best environment for global progress is one in which each nation pursues its own interests alone. For current American leaders, this order has historically been the norm, and it is logical and natural that the largest and strongest nations should play a dominant role. The US thus acknowledges its desire for a world where the law of the strongest prevails, and proclaims, unapologetically, that in this new era, its nation is destined to occupy a preeminent position.
They acknowledge, however, that there may be other great powers—China, without mentioning it—and that American priorities must be the Western Hemisphere—which is their sphere of influence—and the defense, across the globe, of access to all those resources and geographic points critical for progress.
The new American strategy establishes clear priorities in the economic sphere, indicating three sectors in which the objective is to enjoy a dominant global position: energy, finance, and new technologies. There is talk of projecting their soft power abroad, but this is pure rhetoric. The strategy emphasizes achieving a balance in relations with trading partners, but it is clear that they will use their current dominance, as much as necessary, to force negotiations to their advantage. We have already seen this with this year's tariff agreements, in which they used the threat of not providing military support to Ukraine to gain significant advantages.
The new politics has obvious contradictions, is based on prejudices and nostalgia, to put it mildly, and is more characteristic of the 19th century than the 21st. But for Europe, its citizens, and its businesses, these shortcomings are not the relevant issue. The crucial thing is how to confront it.
Trump and his teams want a Europe subservient to the US, dominated by nation-states and not supranational organizations like the EU. A divided Europe governed by "patriotic" parties. European countries that, thus isolated, would be much more submissive and easier to manipulate by the great American power, which would then ensure they did not fall into the orbit of the other great power.
In this new world shaped by the US-China rivalry, a Europe of nation-states will have great difficulty competing and maintaining its level of progress. And even by having its own autonomous policies that reflect the democratic will of the European peoples and their understanding of the world, based on liberal democracy and an international order founded on multilaterally agreed rules.
In the new world of great power rivalry, only a united Europe will be able to defend its values and interests. They say the EU was built in times of crisis. What more must happen for the countries of the Union to realize the significance of this moment? The American strategy is already clear: divide and conquer. When will we take the decisive step towards true political integration?
