BarcelonaThere's a saying that fits very well with BBVA's takeover bid for Banc Sabadell: don't mention the wheat until it's in the bag and well tied up. The takeover bid, a process that has been going on for more than sixteen months, demonstrates that things can take twists and turns, and at first go well for some and badly for others, and vice versa. At BBVA, they were tireless in saying they wouldn't improve their offer. It's obvious that this is done, but it's not said. But it's strange to insist so much when you plan to do the opposite of what you're promising. This is unless the change is due to pressure from the markets, which had been betting for months on what has ended up being done, although, according to some investors, with insufficient improvement.
In any case, with the modification of the offer, BBVA corrects an issue (erroneous, some say) that penalized small shareholders fiscally. Now they won't have to pay personal income tax if they have capital gains, as long as BBVA exceeds the 50.01% capital threshold it set itself. Depending on how shareholder support goes, it could opt to waive the offer and settle for between 30% and 49.99%, which would require it to launch a second all-cash takeover bid but prevent any other potential buyer from launching an offer. And later (perhaps with a change in the Spanish government), they could end up spearheading a merger. We'll see.
