Growth that requires better distribution and budgets

For months now, most research services and organizations of all kinds have been revising their growth forecasts upwards. The most recent one has been the Bank of Spainwhich calculates that the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow this year, but also in 2026 and 2027, more than initially estimated. In fact, this year, 2025, which is about to end, will almost reach 3%. Specifically, it will be 2.9%, and in subsequent years, 2.2% and 1.9%.

It is true that, like a car, part of the increase is related to inertia. Given that the Spanish economy will close the current year better than expected, the start of the next year will maintain a good pace. The estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025 are quite positive, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of between 0.6% and 0.7%. Catalonia is also maintaining a remarkable cruising speed, with an increase of 0.8% in the third quarter and an annual rate of 2.4%.

These are, without a doubt, positive elements. The State confirms this with Tax revenue that, before the end of the year, exceeds 300 billion for the first time in euros, driven by improved employment, which boosts personal income tax revenue, and strong consumer spending, which benefits VAT collection.

But not all the data is so positive. The final figures for the third quarter published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) reveal that exports, that is, foreign trade, weakened. The statistical agency confirmed that Spanish GDP grew by 0.6% between July and September. However, this upward trend in the economy slowed by one-tenth of a percentage point compared to the second quarter, when the increase was 0.7%. The external sector was one of the factors that caused this. In Catalonia, where industry, and therefore the external sector, has a greater weight, exports remain strong, despite the unfavorable international situation.

In any case, the risk is that a large part of the population will not perceive this economic boom. It's like when you're driving on the highway and you see everyone passing you while you fall behind. In fact, this is happening, for example, with the near inaccessibility of housing. Moving from macroeconomics, from the big numbers, to microeconomics, we see that the distribution of wealth maintains excessively high inequalities and imbalances. This is the major challenge that remains, requiring public action to improve GDP per capita, that is, the share of the economic pie that each person receives. And for this, budgets are also necessary, both at the national and regional levels. And fairer regional funding is also needed.

Both the Spanish State and Catalonia begin a new fiscal year with their budgets extended for the third consecutive year. This means that the projected figures are those included in the law passed in March 2023, as it was also impossible to approve them in December of the previous year. Simply relying on increased tax revenue is not enough. A roadmap is needed to implement policies to reduce inequality and improve the housing situation, one of the biggest problems to be addressed. Political parties should make a responsible effort and reach agreements that allow for budgets to be approved as soon as possible.