Who wins and who loses from Trump's trade war?

MADRIDDonald Trump's open trade war and Ukraine's cornering Regarding its protection, have put different sectors of the European, Spanish and Catalan economy in the spotlight. In some cases, alarm bells have been raised over the impact of possible tariffs. In others, however, and following the maxim that there are always those who profit from crises, they are rubbing their hands at the response of Europe and the Member States in Trump's new foreign order. However, the scope, still uncertain, of all this does not let anyone breathe easy: "[With a trade war] everyone loses," sums up the researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, Enrique Feás.

The first element that leads to this conclusion is that today's trade has nothing to do with that of the 20th century. World production has been fragmented drop by drop, Feás recalls, giving rise to a globalization of supply chains. "You can apply tariffs and benefit a final product, but along the way you can also harm those who are needed to manufacture it. This puts pressure on the final price and, therefore, impacts on trade and on everyone, even on those who are your partners," explains the researcher. "The fact that economic activity is affected does not help anyone."

The other major element is the uncertainty surrounding the measures. In fact, for the experts consulted, this is the most important challenge for now, something that is already perceived by business organizations such as CEOE. "The concern [of the companies] is born from uncertainty. They are waiting to see how everything is finalized," says Marta Blanco, president of CEOE Internacional, who hopes that the negotiation will avoid a trade war.

Little export weight

In any case, there are sectors that are more sensitive than others to a trade war with the United States. However, it must be taken into account that this is not a main market for Spain or Catalonia. In fact, in both cases, in recent years the deficit balance (when imports exceed exports) has widened due to the energy weight.

The State is one of the European countries in which exports to the North American country have a lower weight: 18,904 million euros in 2024, which represents just under 5% of total sales of goods abroad. The figure is far from that recorded by Italy (10.7%), Germany (9.9%) or France (7.3%). If compared to the GDP, Spanish exports to the US fall even more (2.3%), according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business.

In the Catalan case, throughout 2023 (the year for which complete data is available) goods worth 3,648 million were exported, which represents 3.6% of the total exports. "We cannot forget that if the German economy is going badly, it also affects Spain and Catalonia," says Ángel Hermosilla, a member of the College of Economists of Catalonia, who adds this element as one of the indirect consequences of the trade war.

By sectors, machinery with 16.7% (industrial and technological and electronic devices), perfumery and cosmetics (19%) and pharmaceutical products (7%) are the most exposed in Catalonia. They are followed by the agri-food sector and, in particular, wine, which has long sought to strengthen its presence in American shop windows, as stated in an economic note from ACCIÓ. In the State as a whole, in addition to industrial machinery, semi-manufactured goods (chemical products, mainly) and food, especially oils and fats, stand out. "There is a strong regional component," says Feás at the ARA. The Basque Country, for example, may be more affected by machinery sales, while Andalusia or Aragon would be punished by agricultural activity.

The defense sector rises on the stock market

Hand in hand with the trade dispute, Trump has also realigned US foreign policy, joining forces with Vladimir Putin – Russia remains the greatest threat to the Old Continent – and putting the military support that it has provided in Ukraine on the ropes. Faced with this, Europe has announced a plan to rearm (it wants to mobilise up to 800 billion in four years), which implies greater public spending on defence and military technology.

Indra or Airbus They have already put in writing the business opportunities, and therefore the profit opportunities, that are presented to them thanks to this situation. As a result, in the Ibex 35, for example, Indra has appreciated by more than 40% since it started in 2025, while, at a European level, the Stoxx Europe – the aerospace and defense index – has risen by more than 30%.

The steel industry and companies dedicated to steel, such as ArcelorMittal in the Spanish case, have also climbed on the stock market. Despite Trump's intention to apply tariffs of 25%, the fact that a possible peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia can be reached gives wings to a sector that will be key to reconstruction and that Europe wants to protect.

The banking sector, on the other hand, has been the one that has come out the worst so far, and in particular, companies such as BBVA, which depends largely on Mexico. The financial sector is keeping a close eye on the impact that tariffs of 25% in Mexico and Canada and 10% in China could have on prices and economic activity.

And the response to tariffs?

The researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute assumes that, although economic theory suggests that a trade war should not be entered into, "in the case of Trump, one cannot fail to react, because that is how he works." "Trump is insensitive to diplomacy, but sensitive to the economic effects of certain companies," he adds, and recalls the moratorium on tariffs in the automobile sector in Mexico and Canada hours after announcing them. He also believes that Europe has a commercial negotiating background that favors it. "There is certainly a list of very sensitive products to which one can react. Much more damage can be done with a specific gesture than with a grandiloquent reaction," he believes.

What is clear is that an alteration of international trade will have consequences on economic activity, but also on prices, particularly for the United States. "I don't think we'll experience an inflationary rebound like the one during the energy crisis. Families may not notice it, but [the scenario] complicates the economic policy of governments," reflects Esade professor Josep Comajuncosa.