The Dalai Lama shields his lineage: only his inner circle can recognize his "reincarnation."

BarcelonaTibetan tradition holds that the soul of a Buddhist monk is reincarnated after death. Now that the Dalai Lama is about to turn 90—this Sunday— Tibetans are anxious to know who will replace him., charged with supporting the nation in exile. The 14th spiritual and political leader of Tibetan Buddhism turns 14 on July 6, and is expected to announce his reincarnation during his birthday ceremony. The announcement has generated excitement, not only among followers of his religion, but also in interested countries: the United States, India, and, above all, China.

In a written statement, he said Wednesday that "the institution will continue" and has designated his inner circle as the "exclusive" authority to recognize his reincarnation. It is a historic declaration to protect his lineage and protect Tibet from interference by the Chinese government. The birthday ceremony, which all faithful will be able to attend, will be held in Dharamsala, India, where the spiritual leader has lived since his exile from Tibet in 1959 after a failed popular uprising against Chinese occupation.

"The Dalai Lama is 90 years old, but we know he will live at least 110. In fact, there is a prophecy that says he will live to 113. In any case, he is in very good health and has a clearer head than all of us," says Thubten Wangchen, founder of the Casa del Tíbet in Barcelona. This Buddhist monk explains to ARA that the Dalai Lama said some time ago that, as his 90th birthday approached, he would outline the roadmap for the institution's future. This announcement is expected to be made Sunday morning via a video message.

The future Dalai Lama will face the challenge of maintaining leadership of the Tibetan people in exile, at a time when this stateless nation is in decline (the Tibetan community in exile is shrinking) and the goal of returning to their homeland is increasingly distant.

The possible successor

Although authorities have given few details so far about how the new leader will be chosen, the Dalai Lama himself has given some clues about what it should be like. In his book Voice for the voiceless [Voice for the Voiceless], published in March 2025, the Dalai Lama explains that his successor will be someone born outside of China, so it could be one of the 140,000 Tibetan exiles, half of whom live in India. He also says it doesn't necessarily have to be a man. The 15th Dalai Lama will be born after the 14th has died. But now he can announce his family, his name, or even the date, explains Wangchen.

What happens while the new spiritual leader is a minor? The Dalai Lama himself will choose a regent—something he could also announce this weekend—who will be in charge of assuming his duties while the novice receives the necessary education to become the new Lama. "As he has the same soul as the previous one, the learning process is very fast. At 15 or 16, he can already be a master," Wangchen remarks.

The current Dalai Lama, born Lhamo Thondup on July 6, 1935, to a peasant family in what is now Qinghai Province, China, was identified as a reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama when he was just 2 years old. At the time, a fact-finding team sent by the Tibetan government made the decision based on a vision of a monk. In the winter of 1940, Lhamo Thondup was transferred to the Potala Palace in Lhasa, the capital of what is now Tibet Autonomous Region, and officially appointed the spiritual leader of the Tibetans.

Fear of Interference

But now Tibetans live in fear—justifiably—that the tentacles of China, which considers the Dalai Lama a separatist leader "without any right to represent the Tibetan people," will interfere in this decision. In fact, Beijing believes it has the right to decide his successor. Precedents do not inspire optimism. When the last Panchen Lama—the second most important figure in Tibet—died in 1989, the child chosen to succeed him disappeared at the age of 6 at the hands of Beijing. And he has not been seen since.

China has been working for years to decisively crush the Tibetan independence movement, through arbitrary arrests, torture, and even murder. Although in public view the Tibetan authorities appear loyal to the Chinese Communist Party. (at the beginning of the month, the Dalai Lama's second-in-command met with Chinese President Xi Jinping), in practice the institution aims to avoid Beijing's control in this and all other decisions in order to have the maximum possible autonomy.

But the situation is not favorable. While in 2024 the then-President of the United States, Joe Biden, signed a law pressuring Beijing to respond to Tibet's demands for greater autonomy, the Trump administration proclaims itself to be less expansionist and, in any case, has avoided setting itself up as a defender of human rights and democracy. "We hope for the best, but we prepare for the worst," said Tsering Yangchen, a member of the Tibetan Parliament in exile, recently, invoking a quote from the Dalai Lama himself.

At the same time, the Tibetan community in exile is shrinking: of the 150,000 Tibetans living in exile, a large percentage—especially young people—have left India and Nepal for Western countries. But Wangchen is optimistic: "The Chinese government won't be able to keep Tibet forever. Xi Jinping will leave at some point."