Von der Leyen and Merz, two old enemies now forced to come to an understanding.

BrusselsNo European leader has so far been able to overshadow the undisputed leadership of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Since Angela Merkel left the German Chancellery, she has emerged as the the most powerful leader in the Union: She has benefited from the fact that Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron have been overshadowed and has even been able to tame Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She has also built a tailor-made European Commission and has been the visible face of such significant measures for the European bloc as aid to Ukraine, the joint purchase of vaccines, and, among others, the creation of European post-Covid funds. "Perhaps since Jacques Delors, no one has concentrated as much power and influence as she has in Brussels," reflects a MEP source.

But the future of the German conservative does not look so peaceful, and a leader of her own party (CDU), Friedrich Merz, could be the one who complicates her control of the European institutions. The winner of the German elections He has already warned that he does not intend to adopt as low a profile as Scholz on the international stage and has proclaimed Germany's return to the EU and the global geopolitical stage. "We must be able to act quickly again to be present in Europe," Merz said upon winning the election. "Germany is back," he proclaimed. when announcing the government pact on Wednesday.

In principle, a strong German leadership in The EU should not make Von der Leyen suffer.Quite the opposite. However, the future chancellor and the president of the European Commission have been historical rivals within the CDU and belong to different factions within the party. The head of the EU executive served as a minister in various Merkel governments and was supported by the former chancellor herself at the head of the European Commission. On the contrary, Merkel lost power during Merkel's terms, to the point that she temporarily retired from politics.

Von der Leyen belongs to the more moderate wing of the German Christian Democratic party, while Merz belongs to the more hardline. The head of the EU executive, for example, launched Brussels' ambitious green agenda during her previous term, but the future chancellor has clearly sided with her. the German automobile industry and advocates a slower, more gradual clean transition, considering that the European Commission's environmental regulations could reduce the competitiveness of European industry, which is not exactly going through a good time.

Be that as it may, and despite their differences, Von der Leyen and Merz will be two of the EU's main leaders and are obliged to understand each other, especially in the face of the challenge posed by the return of Donald Trump and the expansionism of Vladimir Putin's regime. In fact, the head of the community executive has already been moving towards more right-leaning positions; she has given in in the face of the anti-ecological wave sweeping across Europe and has reduced its green commitment, and has also adopted as its own the migration policies advocated by the far right and by Merz himself.

In addition, Von der Leyen has already broken the cordon sanitaire with a part of the European far right and in the European Parliament has reached agreements with the MEP group of which Meloni's party is a part. In turn, Merz also voted on a motion against immigration with the far right, a gesture that earned him criticism from the more moderate wing of the CDU and from Merkel herself.

The third wheel

Another of Von der Leyen's main rivals in Brussels is also internal: the president of the European People's Party (EPP), Manfred WeberUnlike the President of the European Commission, who has yet to congratulate Merz, the leader of the conservative MEPs took just a few minutes to congratulate himself on the social network X for the "clear mandate" that the Germans have given to the future chancellor, with whom he maintains a good relationship and ideological affinity. "The voters have spoken clearly," tweeted the leader of the most influential and powerful party in the EU.

Weber, like Merz, is also part of the more conservative sensibility of the German Christian Democrats and has often pressured Brussels to relax environmental measures and, among other things, toughen migration policies. Furthermore, Weber was set to lead the European Commission, but Von der Leyen—with the indispensable connivance of Emmanuel Macron and Merkel—snatched the presidency from him at the last minute. Since then, the EPP leader has been an internal opponent of the EU leader in an attempt to push the EU towards more right-wing positions and has become von der Leyen's main internal rival. From now on, he may find a new ally in Merz.