The five major debates on the future of Europe in which Germany can be decisive

BrusselsThe government of Olaf Scholz has passed almost unnoticed on the international scene and has had enough work to do in calming Germany's internal crises. It has been unable to to establish a profile of its own in the European Union and even less so of taking the helm of the community block, as is assumed for the largest economy on the continent. Not even in the most serious hours, like Donald Trump's threats On transatlantic relations and the war in Ukraine, the Social Democrat chancellor has not raised his voice and has not made any attempt to play a leading role.

This attitude contrasts with the first statements of the future new chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Within a few hours, the conservative leader called on Europe to "wake up" before it is too late in the face of "the change of era" that the West is experiencing and has already warned that one of his priorities will be to once again have an influential role in the European institutions. In this sense, it is expected that the new German government will be decisive in several of the major issues on the table in Brussels and that will mark the future of the continent.

An "independent" Europe

"My absolute priority is to strengthen Europe as soon as possible, step by step. We can really achieve independence from the United States," Merz said shortly after winning the election. This statement represents a major break in the foreign policy of Germany, which has been one of the most Atlanticist countries in Europe since World War II. "I thought I should never say this on a television show, but after Donald Trump's comments it is clear that this American government cares little about the fate of Europe," he added.

In this way, Merz is moving closer to France's position on defence, which has always advocated greater European autonomy from Washington, and is joining the call of the vast majority of European leaders to rearm. However, he is not in any way advocating reducing the commitment to NATO, which is controlled by the United States. de facto by the Pentagon, and assures that he maintains "a prudent trust" with the largest military organization in the world. "It continues to function correctly," said the future foreign minister, who stressed that it still provides security to Europe.

The rearmament account, separately

Merz insists that it is necessary to rearm Europe and increase the capacity of the European military industry. In fact, he sees this as the only possible way to achieve "independence" from the United States. But how to finance it? This is where the union of EU member states is failing and the German leader is far from the majority of community allies. The idea of creating new Eurobonds similar to those of Covid to finance the increase in the military force of the community bloc is gaining ground, but Germany - both conservatives and social democrats - flatly refuses. "Merz is in favour of strict fiscal discipline and opposes the issuance of common EU debt," the expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Andreas Bock, assures ARA.

However, Scholz has opened the door to accepting a Relaxation of EU fiscal rules and that the member states that request it should not have their military expenditure taken into account when calculating the deficit, which at the moment must be a maximum of 3%. However, even if Merz maintains this position, it would be the European partners who would individually pay for rearmament out of their own pockets and there would be no option to pool their financing. It should be remembered that, in the case of the pandemic, it was not until Angela Merkel gave the thumbs up that the Covid recovery funds were approved.

More support in Ukraine

Scholz has always been hesitant when there has been a debate about sending new types of weapons to Ukraine and has ended up acting in the wake of the other allies, which has brought him criticism from the opposition. In this regard, the conservative leader promised during the campaign that he would lift the Social Democrat's blockade on the use of Taurus long-range missiles against targets in Russian territory. "This positioning contrasts with the hesitations of Scholz, who feared dissatisfying part of his electorate with even stronger support in Kiev," adds Bock.

According to the expert himself, Merz "is very cautious about sending peacekeepers to Ukraine to avoid giving political ammunition to far-right and left-wing parties" opposed to helping Ukraine as Germany has done so far. In any case, the conservative leader was also very clear when it came to claiming the participation of Kiev and Brussels in potential negotiations for a ceasefire or a peace agreement. In this sense, he warned that an agreement without the voice of the EU or Ukraine would be "unacceptable."

Stricter migration policies

Scholz has already tightened migration policies, including imposing border controls indefinitely, even though Germany is part of the Schengen area of free movement in Europe. But Merz has raised the stakes and raised the possibility of deporting all immigrants living illegally in Germany abroad, an idea similar to those being considered by Brussels and the European Union as a whole. "These proposals are clearly influenced by the rise of the extreme right," the researcher at the ARA told the German Federal Republic. think tank ECDPM, Volker Hauck.

Environmentalism falls into oblivion

The anti-environmentalist wave has been felt in Germany and the green agenda has gone almost unnoticed in this election campaign. "Even the Greens have not spoken much," notes Hauck. And, in fact, when environmental sustainability has been discussed, it has been rather to defend a slower and less ambitious climate transition, especially with regard to the automobile sector. In this sense, the researcher points out, "it is very possible" that Merz "will be more willing to accept the demands of the employers' associations in the German automobile sector", which is capital for the country's economy and has a great influence in politics, especially in the CDU.

The position of the new German government may therefore be decisive in the long-standing debate in the EU on reducing restrictions on combustion cars and relaxing pollution limits for this type of vehicle, as well as the Reduction of environmental constraints, for example, to farmers who wish to benefit from aid under the common agricultural policy (CAP).