Everything you need to know to understand the elections in Germany

BarcelonaAfter a bitter campaign marked by debates over immigration, security and poor economic prospects, Germans will decide on Sunday who will lead the next government. The conservative CDU candidate Friedrich Merz is leading the polls, but the role of the far-right Alternative for Germany will be relevant, which could double its number of seats and become the second force ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, according to the latest polls. Here are the key points to follow in the election.

Why will the role of the far right be decisive?

This could be the country's most decisive election in decades. But why? Sunday Alternative for Germany could establish itself as a relevant player in German politics. AfD already demonstrated in August that it could win an election with the victory in Thuringia (and second place in Saxony) and in recent months it has managed to become decisive in the political agenda (The main theme of the campaign has been immigration.) and even penetrate the proposals of its traditional adversaries, the CDU and the SPD.

The other side of the coin are the traditional parties, for whom the polls predict worse results. These elections could end the post-Merkel era, for whom the Scholz government has been quite a continuation despite not being from the same party.

And finally, there is the symbolic weight of Germany. The advance of the extreme right has a special connotation in the country where Nazism was born and which has based its modern democracy on the rejection of this ideology. The European Union was also reflected in this idea. And for that reason, and because Germany is the economic engine of Europe, the fact that the extreme right sets the agenda in Berlin also suggests that it will do so in Brussels. For the moment The CDU has said it will not form a government with the far rightBut, as in the case of Austria, it will depend on parliamentary arithmetic whether concessions are made to the extremists or the country falls into a political deadlock.

What do the polls say?

The conservatives – an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – have been leading the polls for more than two years and are expected to win 30% of the votes, according to the latest survey published by the Forsa institute. The AfD, with 20%, could double its number of seats in the Bundestag, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD would remain on 16% and fall to third place, having won the 2021 election. They would be followed by their governing partners, the Greens with 13%, for 13%, for 13%. Also running in the elections are the Free Democrats (FDP) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which may not surpass the 5% threshold to enter parliament. But in a context where traditional parties and institutions are being discredited, polls are unreliable.

What is at stake?

The following issues have dominated the debate.

Immigration

The elections They arrive shortly after a series of attacks – some of them committed by asylum seekers– which have been politically exploited to increase concerns about security and immigration and have put pressure on political leaders to toughen asylum and reception laws. The spread of this rhetoric has pushed traditional parties such as the CDU to toughen their policy proposals on immigration, which is presenting itself in the elections with stricter measures, although the AfD's are even harsher.

Economy

Germany is Europe's largest economy, but it has been in recession for two years, the worst in two decades. The lack of initiative to modernise industry and excessive dependence on Russian gas have contributed to slowing down what was Europe's economic engine a decade ago. The next government will face the challenge of reviving industry, which has been affected by high energy prices with the war in Ukraine and the disconnection of Russian gas supplies and by tough Chinese competition in key sectors such as the automobile industry. In this regard, the CDU, the SPD and the Greens propose investing in renewable energy to reduce costs, while AfD and also the CDU want to bet on nuclear energy.

Housing

As in many other European countries, housing prices are a concern for German citizens, especially those living in large cities such as Berlin. Although Germany has been working on a policy of affordable housing for years, the perception among the population is increasingly negative. While in 2010 seven out of ten Germans were satisfied with the affordable housing policy, now only four out of ten are.

Ukraine

The main German parties (the Conservatives, Socialists and Greens) have claimed that it is necessary to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion, while the AfD and BSW want to resume good relations with Moscow and end arms deliveries to Kiev. Given how the Ukraine peace negotiations are progressing, from which European partners have been excluded, the EU's position could become even weaker.