Türkiye and Israel: New battle for control of Syria

BeirutThe fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime at the end of 2024 not only shook the Syrian political board, but also ignited a new rivalry between two Key players in the region: Türkiye and Israel. Although they kept their tensions under control for years, they are now openly competing for influence in Syrian territory, and their movements are already generating friction that could escalate if containment mechanisms are not established.

Israel reacted quickly to the new scenario. The rise to power in Damascus of Ahmed al Sharaa, an Islamist leader supported by Türkiye, set off alarm bells in Tel Aviv. The Israeli Defense Forces reinforced their presence in the Golan Heights, intensified patrols on the northern border and activated a kind of buffer zone southern Syria. According to official rhetoric, these are measures to prevent the emergence of new threats, but Ankara sees it as a maneuver to change the rules of the game and curb Turkish influence in the new Syrian landscape.

Meanwhile, Türkiye has not sat idly byTaking advantage of the power vacuum following the fall of al-Assad, Ankara has expanded its military presence in Syria with the approval of the new government, which has opened up airspace and some strategic bases. It's not just about maintaining control in the north of the country, where it has already operated for years: Ankara is now also seeking to establish itself further in the south, with the idea of gaining a firm foothold in the reconstruction process and securing its position against the Kurds and remnants of jihadist groups.

Behind these moves is not just a military strategy, but a long-term vision. For Ankara, Syria is its natural zone of influence, a historical and geographical space in which it wants to play a central role. For Israel, on the other hand, the idea of a Syrian government close to Islamism and allied with Turkey, with Turkish troops operating near its border, poses a direct risk to its security.

And this tension has already begun to take shape on the ground. In recent weeks, Israeli aircraft have bombed military convoys near Palmyra, where Turkish advisors are suspected of being stationed. Ankara has not confirmed this, but local media have reported several injuries. Turkish drones have also been detected flying overhead. Golan Heights, suggesting that both countries are closely monitoring each other.

Dialogue in Baku

Given this situation, Turkey and Israel have agreed to open a channel of technical dialogue, with Azerbaijan as intermediary. The first meetings were held in Baku, and although they are preliminary encounters, they show that both sides recognize the sensitivity of the situation. The objective is to establish mechanisms to avoid accidental clashes, a mechanism similar to that which Turkey already uses with the United States or Russia in other conflict zones.

Added to all this is the ideological component. Israel accuses Turkey of promoting an Islamist agenda in Syria that could end up fueling new hotbeds of radicalismErdogan, for his part, criticizes what he calls Israel's "occupier mentality," accusing it of wanting to weaken the new Syrian government to maintain its dominance in the region. That is to say, beyond military maneuvers, there is a charged political discourse that continues to fuel tensions, mediated from outside. Although they have praised Turkey for its role in "stabilizing" the country, they remain Israel's main security ally, leaving the field open for Turkey and Israel to occupy this space.

So far, there have been no direct clashes, but the risk remains.

Ultimately, much will depend on whether Turkey and Israel manage to keep channels of communication open and avoid crossing certain red lines. Because beyond their differences and ambitions, both have much to lose if the conflict escalates.