The 'trap' formula NATO is considering to please Trump and reduce defense spending

BrusselsDonald Trump and NATO are not giving in and insisting that at all costs the European allies of the Atlantic Alliance will have to accept the obligation to spend at least one 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defenseHowever, at this time, the vast majority of partners are far from this spending rate and have neither the plans nor the will to achieve it. For this reason, the foreign ministers of the NATO countries, who met this Thursday in Antalya (Turkey), have already discussed ways to please Trump and ensure he gets the leader he wants, without the European allies having to allocate so much money to their military capabilities.

The formula currently on the table is known as 3.5%+1.5%, according to NATO sources. Allies should spend at least 3.5% of their wealth on more traditional defense. That is, soldiers, tanks, planes, or missiles. The other 1.5% would include a broader concept of what is considered security and could also include cybersecurity, the fight against terrorism, or border control.

It should be noted that currently only the first portion is counted as military spending, and if the broader security concept is added, the Atlantic partners will automatically increase the percentage of GDP they allocate to defense. This would make it easier for European NATO states to reach the 5% Trump is demanding by 2032, the year in which it is expected that all allies will have to reach this rate, according to the same NATO sources.

In fact, this is one of the demands that Pedro Sánchez's government has been making for months, arguing that it is one of the allies that allocates the most resources to border control and the fight against terrorism. However, most European NATO partners, especially Spain, are far from meeting that 3.5% threshold for traditional defense. Without going any further, with the Moncloa plan of 10.5 billion euros, the State will only reach 2% and would still be 1.5 percentage points short of reaching the traditional 3.5% military spending expected to be agreed upon at the next NATO summit in The Hague next June.

Although Spain is at the bottom of NATO's list of military spending, this is not an exceptional case. According to theannual report of the same Atlantic Alliance, there are still more than a dozen of the 27 allies that don't even reach 2% and on average only allocate 2.61% of GDP.

The 5% is gaining strength

Beyond the Pentagon, until a few days ago, few voices supported Trump and advocated agreeing on a minimum military spending target of 5%. However, the 3.5%-1.5% formula has given the rate the US administration wants to impose a boost. Even the new German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, supported the percentage the Donald Trump administration wants to demand at Thursday's NATO ministerial meeting. This is the first time a European ally of similar weight to Germany has shown a willingness to do so.

The German Foreign Minister also took it almost for granted in statements to the media that this formula for reaching 5% by 2032 will be the one agreed upon at the next NATO summit in The Hague. In this regard, diplomatic sources from the Atlantic Alliance indicate that they expect to have an agreement almost finalized before the meeting with Trump next June to prevent the New York magnate from making more demands at the last minute and blowing up the agreements negotiated over months with the rest of the allies.

On the other hand, the United States not only demanded this Thursday that European partners multiply their military spending, but its Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, urged them not to exclude American companies from the arms contracts that European states are signing with the war industry. "US industry is an integral part of the transatlantic industry and should not be marginalized from Europe's rearmament," reads a statement issued by the White House.