The new 'Asian tigers' take over global growth

TokyoAt the end of the last century and the first two decades of this one, the narrative of Asian growth was dominated by names like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, and more recently by China. However, today the continent's economic center of gravity is shifting toward Southeast Asia: Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are leading a new wave of sustained growth, driven by a combination of foreign capital, a young workforce, and increasingly deeper integration into global production chains.

Unlike the old Asian tigersThe rise of these countries is not solely due to intensive industrialization or the export of cheap manufactured goods. The new dynamic is marked by the relocation of companies seeking to reduce their dependence on China, by a growing focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, mid-range semiconductors, and renewable energy, and by an increasingly tense geopolitics between Washington and Beijing that makes Southeast Asia a key arena for economic and strategic competition. Vietnam has established itself in just a few years as one of the main beneficiaries of the global industrial reconfiguration. With GDP growth of around 7% annually and an active policy of attracting foreign investment, the country has become a key component of the strategy known as China plus oneMultinationals in the electronics, textile, and automotive sectors have relocated some of their production to Vietnam. They are doing so by taking advantage of a young, relatively skilled workforce and still competitive costs. This success, however, also poses structural challenges. Logistics and energy infrastructure remain limited in some regions, and the export-oriented model makes the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand. At the same time, the government is trying to move towards higher value-added activities—such as industrial design, software, and advanced manufacturing—to avoid becoming trapped in a specialization based solely on low wages. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is playing a different game. With over 270 million inhabitants, it combines a strong domestic market with a strategic position in sectors key to the energy transition. The country holds some of the world's largest nickel reserves, an essential mineral for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries, which has attracted Chinese, South Korean, and European investment across the entire value chain. The Indonesian government has opted to break with its traditional role as a raw materials exporter and promote local industrialization, even limiting the export of raw minerals. This strategy has boosted growth, which hovers around 5-6%, but has also created a scenario of increasing tensions: environmental risks, social conflicts, and a growing dependence on major industrial powers competing to secure access to critical resources. The Philippines, meanwhile, has specialized in a less industrialized but increasingly digital economy. With a very young population and widespread English language use, the country has become a significant hub for outsourced services, information technology, and the knowledge economy. GDP growth exceeds 6% annually, driven by domestic consumption, remittances from abroad, and the expansion of the services sector.

However, the Philippine economy continues to show structural weaknesses: dependence on the service sector, a weak industrial base, and infrastructure deficiencies limit its long-term potential. At the same time, the recent push for digitalization, the start-ups Technological advancements and the application of artificial intelligence open a window of opportunity for the country to diversify its model and gain weight in global value chains.

The rise of the new Asian tigers This opens a new scenario for European companies at a time marked by declining industrial competitiveness, rising energy costs, and the need to diversify supply chains. Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are emerging as partial alternatives to dependence on China, both for industrial production and for access to markets with strong growth potential. For sectors such as automotive, electronics, renewables, and the auxiliary industries, Southeast Asia is already part of medium-term strategic decisions. Unlike previous phases of globalization, however, these countries no longer aspire only to attract factories or low value-added subcontracting: they require long-term investments, technology transfer, and a presence in higher value-added segments. For European companies, this means competing with highly aggressive Chinese and American capital, adapting to changing regulatory frameworks, and accepting that Southeast Asia has become a player with its own negotiating power. Balancing with the US and China

But, beyond the economy, the emergence of the new Asian tigers It has a clearly geopolitical dimension. Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are trying to maintain a delicate balance between the United States and China to maximize economic benefits without getting caught in a bloc mentality. This calculated ambiguity allows them to attract investment from both sides, but it also exposes them to increasing pressures in trade, technology, and strategy. This strategic balance, however, is fragile and nuanced. From the Philippines, Francisco Moreno, CEO of Ibarra Watches, warns that the rivalry between the United States and China is "a double-edged sword" for countries like his. "Relations with Washington are key to national security, while Beijing is essential for economic security," he explains. According to Moreno, the tension between the two powers has opened up opportunities through strategy. China plus oneBut this does not guarantee that all Southeast Asian countries can take advantage of them on equal terms.

In the case of the Philippines, he points out, the infrastructure deficit, high energy costs, unstable electricity supply, and structural problems such as corruption make it difficult to compete with neighbors like Vietnam or Indonesia. Moreno argues that the great challenge is to abandon a model based on "quick wins," such as outsourced services or tourism, and instead focus on creating added value, knowledge, and design. "We cannot compete solely on low wages; it is necessary to build a culture of creators and capture real value in the global market," he summarizes.

Southeast Asia is thus consolidating itself as one of the main economic battlegrounds of the 21st century: key for industry, the energy transition, and innovation, but vulnerable to trade tensions, social inequalities, and climate risks. In this new global map, the new tigers They are no longer emerging economies waiting for their moment, but key players in global growth. The question is whether Europe will be able to recognize this shift in the center of gravity of global growth in time.