Germany prepares for Grand Coalition

BerlinGermany is preparing for a new grand coalition between the Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU), winners of the federal elections on 23 February, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), as junior partner. The conservative Friedrich Merz (CDU) will be able to form a coalition with the SPD to form a government, without needing to add the Greens to obtain a majority of seats (316 out of 630 seats). The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU), which are considered sister parties, have 328 seats with the Social Democrats, more than enough to form a coalition government.

The conservatives could also form an alliance with the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), but Merz has already rejected any collaboration with the far right in order to govern. Weidel tried to put pressure on Merz on Monday: "Voters want a centre-right government and, ultimately, it is up to the Union whether it wants to implement it," said the AfD leader at a press conference, who considers that "this blocking position is undemocratic." "They cannot exclude millions of voters." per se"the far-right party member complained, warning that if the CDU and CSU form a grand coalition with the SPD, they would not be able to deliver on their promises to their own voters.

Six parties will be represented in parliament: the conservative CDU-CSU (208, 1 The Left (64) and the South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which won one seat. This regional party represents the Danish minority in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. or the 5% of votes needed to gain parliamentary representation. This makes it easier to form a government, since it means that Merz does not need to form one. tripartite government to govern, which would further complicate negotiations.

Precedents

In Germany, conservatives and Social Democrats forming a coalition to govern is nothing out of the ordinary. It has happened before. The first Grand Coalition was formed in 1966 with Kurt Georg Kiesinger (CDU) as Chancellor and Willy Brandt (SPD) as Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister. More recently, conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel led three grand coalition governments with the Social Democrats.

The big difference this time, however, is that the SPD is the third-largest party, behind the far-right, which has had its best results since 1948. The far-right leader is one of the big winners of this election, having managed to double the number of votes of the AfD.

The conservatives are in a hurry to form a government. Following Sunday's election, negotiating a coalition government will not be easy for Merz, who won, but with a worse result than expected, below 30% of the vote. "Now we have to roll up our sleeves immediately," said CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann in the daily newspaper Image ahead of the meeting of the conservative executive in Berlin. "We must deliver in order to quickly change the mood in Germany. Our security and well-being are at stake. The world will not wait for us. That is why we now need a strong government for a decisive political change," he added.

Condemned to understand each other

The election programmes of the conservatives and the Social Democrats clash on several points, particularly on immigration, and compromises will therefore be necessary. SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch expects difficult negotiations with the Union to form a new federal government. "There is no automatism, but the democratic centre must try to work with it," the Social Democrat politician told public broadcaster ARD. If the Christian Democrats do agree to form a government, the coalition agreement will be subject to the SPD's membership, Miersch said.

SPD Deputy Chairwoman Klara Geywitz also expects difficult coalition negotiations with the Union and believes the outcome "remains to be seen." Although Geywitz does not rule out a grand coalition, she warns that "given the tax cuts for top earners in the CDU's election programme and the current budget situation, there are major differences. It could be very, very complicated," the SPD politician explained to RBB Inforadio.

Christian Linder, the leader of the liberal FDP, who has been left out of the Bundestag, has announced his retirement from politics. Lindner had been finance minister in the traffic light coalition of the Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz, until he was dismissed in November 2024. His dismissal led to the departure of the liberal ministers from the tripartite coalition and the bringing forward of the elections, originally scheduled for next September.

The Green candidate, Robert Habeck, has also accepted political responsibility for his party's poor results in these elections. Habeck, Germany's outgoing economics minister and vice chancellor, has said he will not take up any position in the party leadership.

Impeachment

Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of the new party, which won 4.97% of the vote, just 13,400 short of the 5% required to secure parliamentary representation, has called for a review of the Bundestag election result and, if necessary, a legal challenge. Wagenknecht, who describes herself as a "left-wing conservative", explains that only a small proportion of Germans living abroad were able to vote in these elections, which, in her opinion, raises the question of the legality of the result.