Putin plants Zelensky and spoils Türkiye's talks

Moscow / BrusselsHalf the world was watching Vladimir Putin and the Russian president waited until the last minute to confirm what everyone suspected: that he will not be in Istanbul this Thursday to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky, just as the Ukrainian president had proposedPutin doesn't consider Zelensky a valid interlocutor and proposed direct negotiations with Kiev solely to satisfy Donald Trump, but the Ukrainian leader left him out of the loop by doubling down.

Pressure from the US president, who on Wednesday had once again hinted at the possibility of flying to Istanbul "to save lives," has been of no use. Neither has the stopover in Moscow by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has had to settle for a phone call to negotiate in person.

The Russian delegation will not include any of the usual negotiators with the United States: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, presidential advisor Yuri Ushakov, and the director of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, will be there. They will be made up of second-stringers, and therefore, from the outset, the Kremlin is dashing any hopes of an agreement. The person who will lead it is Vladimir Medinski, former Minister of Culture, charged with rewriting the history books according to the dogmas of the Russian government, and who already led the Russian delegation at the Istanbul talks in March 2022, the last negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

His appointment sends a message to Kiev, but also to Washington. Russia intends to bury the US peace plan discussed a few weeks ago because it believes it can achieve more and does not expect to make any concessions to Turkey. Since Putin proposed direct talks, those within the Kremlin have been at pains to make it clear that the starting point should be the documents discussed precisely in Istanbul three years ago. Of course, "taking into account the real situation on the ground," that is, adding the recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian.

At that time, Ukraine accepted a neutral status, non-adherence to NATO, or renouncing the recapture of Crimea by force. However, there was no agreement on how much the Ukrainian army should be reduced (Russia intended to have fewer than 100,000 soldiers) and, above all, no consensus was reached on security guarantees, a key issue had Ukraine agreed to a reduction in its defense capability.

The Russian pro-government press finds Putin's choice consistent with the argument that, before holding high-level meetings, preliminary work is necessary, which is expected to be carried out in Istanbul with Medinsky and other second-ranking officials. But it is most likely that Kiev, who had brought his president, along with high-level advisors and the foreign minister to Turkey, will consider the Russian gesture a snub.

The unknown is how the American delegation will react, which, after all, is the one who will judge the efforts of both sides to advance the dialogue. The United States has announced that it will not travel to Istanbul until Friday and will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, leaving it unclear whether the other special envoy, Keith Kellogg, considered very close to Kiev, will be present.

The two sides' positions are very far apart, and they have come to the negotiating table as a result of a competition between them to present themselves as the most willing to make peace, not because of any real desire for dialogue. Before the composition of the Russian delegation was known, hopes for these talks were minimal. Since then, they have been completely null.

New sanctions

For Zelensky, the starting point should be a ceasefire of at least 30 days. European leaders had warned Vladimir Putin That if it didn't comply this Monday, the European Union would increase sanctions against the Russian regime. No sooner said than done. This Wednesday, the EU partners agreed on the seventeenth package of restrictions against Russia and intend to more harshly punish the so-called "Russian regime." ghost fleet from Moscow, which are ships dedicated to transporting oil avoiding European sanctions.

According to European diplomatic sources, the European Union has also agreed to extend restrictions to around 30 companies dedicated to dodging previous EU sanctions, and to 75 entities and individuals directly involved in the arms industry and the Russian military. For the moment, the community bloc has avoided including a ban on member states purchasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.

In fact, the EU as a whole has imported 23 billion barrels of LNG from Putin's regime, an amount greater than the military and financial aid it has allocated to Ukraine. Therefore, Brussels has proposed reducing the purchase of fossil fuels until they no longer import anything by 2027. It should be remembered that Spain is the second EU country that acquires the most, surpassed only by France.

Although Hungary and Slovakia have allowed the sanctions package to be passed, the EU fears that they will block the renewal of all the European restrictions against Russia that have been in place since the start of the war in Ukraine.