Putin maintains the mystery and avoids saying whether he will meet with Zelensky in Türkiye.

Moscow / BrusselsHalf the world is focused on Vladimir Putin, and the Russian president is doing what he likes best: silencing and disconcerting everyone. The Kremlin refuses to announce who will represent Russia in the direct talks with Ukraine this Thursday in Istanbul, much less clarify the situation. Whether Putin will accept Zelensky's challenge to meet face-to-face.

There is no indication that the Russian leader will have to travel to Turkey. Putin does not consider the Ukrainian president a valid interlocutor and proposed direct negotiations with Kiev only to satisfy Donald Trump, but Zelensky left him out of the game by doubling down. Pressure from the US president, who this Wednesday again hinted at the possibility of flying to Istanbul "to save lives," or the visit to Moscow of the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to convince Putin to agree to negotiate in person, sparked speculation.

No one dares to rule anything out. The Russian official press had put two names on the table to head the Kremlin delegation: Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister, and Yuri Uyzakov, presidential advisor, but according to the Kommersante, Lavrov has been left out of the equation. Zelensky has already confirmed that he will be in Türkiye and that he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, according to The GuardianIf Putin chooses not to go, for the Ukrainian leader, it will be the definitive signal that he "does not want to end the war."

Meanwhile, the US delegation, which will ultimately be the one to judge the efforts of both sides to advance the dialogue, has postponed its visit to Turkey until Friday. The United States will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, but it is unclear whether the other special envoy, Keith Kellogg, considered very close to Kiev, will be present.

Russia intends to bury the US peace plan discussed a few weeks ago because it believes it can achieve more. Since Putin proposed direct talks, those close to the Kremlin have been at pains to make it clear that the starting point should be the documents discussed in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, at the last meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which ended in failure. Of course, "taking into account the real situation on the ground," that is, including the recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian.

Ukraine then accepted a neutral status, non-membership of NATO, and the renunciation of the right to recapture Crimea by force. However, there was no agreement on how much the Ukrainian army should be reduced (Russia intended to have fewer than 100,000 soldiers) and, above all, no consensus was reached on security guarantees, a key issue had Ukraine agreed to see its defense capability reduced.

In any case, most analysts agree on lowering any expectations for these talks. The positions of both sides are very far apart, and they have come to the negotiating table as a result of a competition between them to present themselves as the most willing to make peace, not because of a real desire for dialogue. However, the possibility of minimal progress in the form of a prisoner exchange or to lay the groundwork for future meetings exists.

New sanctions

For Zelensky, the starting point should be a ceasefire of at least 30 days. European leaders had warned Vladimir Putin That if it didn't comply this Monday, the European Union would increase sanctions against the Russian regime. No sooner said than done. This Wednesday, the EU partners agreed on the seventeenth package of restrictions against Russia and intend to more harshly punish the so-called "Russian regime." ghost fleet According to Moscow, these are ships used to transport oil, avoiding European sanctions. However, the EU has avoided including a ban on member states purchasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.

In fact, the EU as a whole has imported 23 billion barrels of LNG from Putin's regime. fossil fuels until they no longer import anything by 2027. It should be remembered that Spain is the second EU country in terms of purchasing the most, surpassed only by France. the start of the war in Ukraine.