The country where economic autarky is paid for in hectares of tropical forest

TokyoThe forest has disappeared. Rice could not even be planted. In Kalumpang, in the center of the island of Borneo, some 200 hectares of forest were cleared last year to convert them into rice fields as part of the Indonesian government's program to achieve food self-sufficiency. The machines started working there in April 2025 and by September almost the entire area had already been cleared. A year later, the fields remain practically abandoned. The land, largely formed by acidic peatlands, is not suitable for rice cultivation. For the inhabitants of the area, that forest had another value: it provided them with food and raw materials.

Kalumpang is a small episode of a much more ambitious policy. Since taking office in October 2024, Prabowo Subianto has placed food and energy self-sufficiency among his government's priorities. He wants to reduce imports, increase national production, and use the country's resources to boost economic growth to reach 8% annually.

“No nation can be free if it cannot provide food for its people. A nation cannot be independent if its food supply depends on other countries,” stated Prabowo in January. The government considers self-sufficiency in rice achieved in 2025 and wants to extend it to products such as corn and sugar. In parallel, it is betting on biofuels, especially those derived from palm oil, to reduce fuel imports.

Land of self-sufficiency

To do this, land is needed. The government has identified 20.6 million hectares of forest area that could host projects related to food, energy, and water. According to the environmental organization Auriga Nusantara, 8.8 million of these hectares still maintain natural forest cover. Jakarta claims that this does not mean the entire area must be deforested and that each project will have to pass feasibility studies and the corresponding environmental procedures.

The first projects allow for an idea of the scale. The state program to create new rice fields plans to act on 455,000 hectares, about 33,000 of which maintained forest cover. In southern Papua, plans to produce rice and sugarcane could end up affecting nearly two million hectares.

The army is also participating in this policy. Thousands of soldiers and police officers are collaborating in the preparation of the land, the construction of roads and canals, and providing support to the new agricultural operations. The government defends their participation as a way to accelerate projects it considers strategic for national security. For the communities living in these territories, the forest is not an empty surface. From it, they obtain food, wood, and other materials, and for many indigenous peoples, it is part of the territory they have traditionally occupied. When it disappears, the resources upon which these communities depend also disappear.

Deforestation data adds another dimension to the debate. According to satellite analysis by Auriga Nusantara, Indonesia lost 433,751 hectares of forest in 2025, 66% more than the previous year. The organization calculates that more than 78,000 hectares are related to the government's food and energy self-sufficiency programs. Jakarta rejects the idea that the policy consists of indiscriminately opening up the forest to convert it into agricultural land. The authorities insist that the selected areas must pass verification processes and that not all the identified surface area will be deforested. The discussion is also about what the state considers land available for development.

The precedent of the Mega Rice Project

Indonesia has already experienced a similar situation. In 1995, during the Suharto regime, the government launched the Mega Rice Project, a plan to convert more than a million hectares of tropical rainforest and peatlands in Kalimantan into a large rice production area. Forest tracts were cleared and canals were built to drain the peatlands. The land did not respond as the planners had expected. Three years later, the project had been abandoned without having managed to produce the projected rice. The drainage had dried out the peatlands and left them much more exposed to fires. The fires of 1997 and 1998 affected hundreds of thousands of hectares of forests and peatlands in the region.

Prabowo's project is not the same, but it shares with that plan a core idea: converting large tracts of territory into a tool to increase national production. The pressure on the land is not limited to agriculture. Indonesia also wants to reduce its dependence on imported oil and take advantage of one of its main raw materials: palm oil. The government has accelerated the biodiesel program and this October the B50 is scheduled to come into effect, a mixture with 50% fuel derived from palm oil. Jakarta estimates that the B50 will allow for a reduction in diesel imports and save the state about 170 trillion rupiahs annually. For Prabowo, the formula is simple: less energy dependence on the outside, more consumption of domestic raw materials, and more economic activity within the country.

The palm, however, also needs land. Indonesia has large areas of already existing plantations and the government claims it wants to increase their productivity before opening up new spaces. The growth in demand for biodiesel, however, comes at a time when pressure on forests is increasing again.

And there is another country looking towards the Indonesian forests. Japan has become the main foreign market for wood pellets from Indonesia, used as fuel in biomass power plants.

The wood that fuels the Japanese transition

Japanese imports of Indonesian pellets went from 66,460 tons in 2023 to 402,310 in 2025, more than six times in just two years. In total, Japan imported 8.64 million tons of pellets last year, 35% more than in 2024. Biomass thus occupies a growing space in the Japanese strategy to reduce the use of fossil fuels. But the discussion begins before the wood reaches a power plant. Environmental organizations and representatives of local communities warn that the expansion of concessions to produce biomass can affect natural forests. In Indonesia, there are at least 45 biomass concessions occupying more than 750,000 hectares, according to data collected by environmental organizations.

On paper, biomass allows Japan to account for part of the electricity produced as renewable. Its climate effects, however, are the subject of growing discussion. The combustion of wood releases CO₂ and, according to its critics, deforestation can generate significant emissions when the entire production, transport, and forest regeneration cycle is taken into account. Indonesia seeks in its natural resources a way to depend less on the outside world. Japan, on the other hand, needs resources from other countries to advance its energy transition. A part of this demand ends up reaching the Indonesian forests.

In Kalumpang, the forest disappeared. Rice could not even be planted. In other parts of Indonesia, forests are transformed into plantations, energy concessions, or raw material for an external market that needs biomass. Jakarta wants more food, more energy, and less dependence on the outside world. And to achieve this, it needs more and more land.