The Chamber of Commerce estimates the impact of tariffs in Catalonia at around €1 billion.

BarcelonaThe Barcelona Chamber of Commerce estimates that the trade war launched by US President Donald Trump will have an impact of around €1.055 billion on the Catalan economy this year, equivalent to around three-tenths of the Catalan gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy).

Despite this significant impact, the fact that the US is not one of the largest markets for Catalan exporting companies—the North American country accounted for approximately 4.3% of Catalan goods exports in 2024—means that Catalonia can maintain economic activity growth figures that are much higher than those of Europe2.

In this regard, the president of the Chamber, Josep Santacreu, highlighted this Tuesday the "remarkable resilience" of the Catalan productive fabric with respect to tariff increases and recalled that this new global trade war "has caught us at a better moment than other economies and at other times in our history." "The momentum is very good," he added.

In fact, the Chamber predicted last February that the Catalan economy would grow by 2.7%, a figure that would have been revised upwards to 3%, but which due to the impact of tariffs will remain unchanged. Looking ahead to 2026, the Chamber of Deputies expects Catalan GDP growth of 2.4%, which without tariffs would have been 2.6%. These figures are significantly higher than the EU average, where the growth rate will be around 1% in 2025 according to most estimates, with lower figures in the case of the continent's major economies, such as Germany, France, and Italy.

The Chamber's director of research services, Joan Ramon Rovira, has emphasized that, despite the studies that may be prepared by economic institutions, "anything is possible," as there is an "enormous margin of uncertainty" regarding the evolution of trade tensions between the US and the rest of the world. It remains to be seen, he said, how the euro-dollar exchange rate, the price of oil, and whether the negotiations between Brussels and Washington will end with a reduction or a new increase in tariffs will evolve. However, Rovira noted that, despite slowing global growth, the trade war is "not expected" to lead to a global recession.

Rovira emphasized that, tariffs aside, all sectors of the economy have been growing at a good pace for the past two years and that the trend will continue. This positive trend is based on job creation and wage increases, which "support household consumption." The economist also highlighted that there has been "significant growth in labor productivity over the last three years," which will moderate this year. This growth is due to an increase in "productive investment," which has been financed by the European Central Bank's cut in the cost of credit.

In this regard, Rovira highlighted that Catalan exports have been able to continue growing in value, despite being stagnant in volume, which means that higher value-added products are being sold abroad. Furthermore, they have done so in a context in which most European economies (including the rest of Spain) have seen their foreign trade decline or stagnate.

However, the negative point is that the trade war has affected business confidence, which has collapsed since the second quarter of this year due to tariff tensions, and which may negatively affect both hiring and business investment in the immediate future.

The most affected sectors

Of the €1.055 billion impact estimated by the Chamber, approximately €281 million will be direct losses in lost exports to the US, while the remaining €774 million are losses from secondary exports (intermediate or equipment products that go to other countries and are then exported to the United States).

Although, in general, the Catalan economy will be able to withstand the trade war without too many obstacles, there are sectors where the impact will be more significant. Chemical product exports will suffer the most in volume, with an estimated loss of €85 million, followed by capital goods (excluding transportation equipment) and unprepared food, with reductions of €62 million and €47 million, respectively, according to the Chamber's calculations, assuming tariffs will remain at 10%. Sectors with 25% tariffs, such as automotive and steel, will also see significant drops in exports, but lower in value than those mentioned.

However, the automotive industry—one of Catalonia's main export drivers—has a low dependence on the US market. In contrast, the perfume, olive oil, and wine sectors do have a higher degree of dependence on the US, as a larger proportion of their exports go there, as does the chemical and machinery manufacturing industries.