Trump increases pressure on Zelensky to agree to give up territory: "I think we have an agreement with Russia."

MoscowAfter weeks of stalemate in negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, things seem to have begun to clear up hastily. Vladimir Putin would be willing to stop the invasion of Ukraine at the current front line, according to several sources told the Financial Times. In return, he would give up claims to parts of the four Ukrainian provinces he annexed but does not yet control, in a move aimed at forcing Volodymyr Zelensky to accept US terms for peace.

The Russian president reportedly offered it to Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, during their meeting in St. Petersburg on April 11. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has denied this, but in previous statements to the same newspaper he had not denied it. "Many falsifications are now being published, even by respected publications; you should only listen to the original sources," Peskov told RIA Novosti.

What has been leaked so far about the White House proposal It presents a scenario that is beneficial in the short term for Putin, insufficient in the long term, and unacceptable for Zelensky. Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal They point out that, in addition to Ukraine not recovering the occupied territories, the United States is betting on it not joining NATO. In return, Putin would have to accept US control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, an option the Kremlin had described as "impossible," and a vague commitment to the presence of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine; a possibility the Russian government has also always flatly refused, but which, as formulated, does not convince Kiev.

But the Ukrainian president has refused to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, as the United States seeks in its peace plan, and on Tuesday he insisted on the idea of a 30-day ceasefire.

The White House is redoubling the pressure

This Wednesday, both Donald Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, redoubled the pressure on Zelensky and threatened to abandon the negotiations. The US president made it clear in a message on his social media channel, Truth, that he believes Kiev should give up Crimea, arguing that "it was lost years ago" and that "it's not even a topic of discussion." "Incendiary statements like Zelensky's are what make ending this war so difficult," he said.

Later, from the Oval Office, the US president said he believed Russia had accepted a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine, and placed the responsibility on Zelensky to accept the same terms: "I think we have an agreement with Russia. Now we need to get an agreement with Zelensky." "I thought Zelensky might be easier to deal with. But so far, it's been more difficult."

Meanwhile, Vance urged Ukraine and Russia to accept the US proposal and warned that if they don't, Washington will "walk away" from the talks. "We've made a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it's time for them to say yes or the United States will walk away from this process," he said from India. The US proposal would mean "freezing the territorial lines at a level close to where they are today," Vance said, although he added that there would need to be some adjustments. "Of course, this means that the Ukrainians and the Russians will have to give up some of the territory they currently hold," he added.

Annexed provinces

Until now, Putin had always defended as a condition for negotiating a ceasefire that the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia should be completely Russian, including the areas under Kiev control. He had never shown any signs of giving in to any of his maximalist demands and had even hinted that he might demand also provinces that it has never conquered even remotely like Odessa, but several recent signs show that something might be moving.

For example, the editor-in-chief of the newspaper Nezavísima GazetaKonstantin Remchukov, who is very well connected to Moscow's elites, argued last Sunday that the Russian Constitution does not stipulate that the borders of the occupied regions must coincide with Ukrainian administrative divisions, but that they will be established when they finally become part of Russia. This detail contradicts the majority position of the Russian political class and the president himself, who have never discussed the territorial integrity of these provinces. According to Remchukov, it is also key that The army has expelled Ukrainian soldiers from 99.5% of Russia's Kursk region, the chief of the Russian General Staff said.Once this is fully achieved, Putin will feel free to negotiate.

New Trump-Zelensky rift

That everything seems to be suddenly clearing up could be explained by the proximity of April 30, the first 100 days of Trump's term. This Wednesday, White House representatives were scheduled to meet with Ukrainian and European emissaries in London to discuss a US peace proposal, but the United States has decided not to send the two leading figures in the mediation between Russia and Ukraine: Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. the other special envoy, Keith Kellogg, closer to Kiiv. The reason, according to Axios, are Volodymyr Zelensky's statements on Crimea on Tuesday. The absence of US representatives has, incidentally, led European foreign ministers to also opt out of the meeting and send senior officials.

Kremlin commentators are rubbing their hands at the renewed rift between Zelensky and the United States. If Trump abandons mediation, Putin could continue the war. "The Russian position will be 'At least we tried.' I assume that all further negotiations, if not frozen, will continue in a slow format," writes journalist Aleksander Yunashev. Independent analyst Anton Barbashin also believes that the US proposal is "a good step" for Moscow, but that Kiev "will never accept it." Furthermore, the failure to address the "root causes" of the conflict "opens the way for Putin to say that the war will continue."