Russia and the United States negotiate on Ukraine without Europe

BarcelonaThe heads of US and Russian diplomacy will meet in Riyadh on Tuesday to discuss the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov heads the Russian delegation and Secretary of State Marco Rubio the American one: the meeting will also serve to prepare the expected meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not participate in the meeting and will not recognize its results, although he will also travel to Saudi Arabia in the coming days, after meeting Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan this morning in Ankara. The meeting between Lavrov and Rubio, the first between Moscow and Washington since January 2022, comes after the failure of the Munich Security Conference and the emergency meeting of the European leaders in Paris. Europe fears being left out, and on Tuesday morning European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with US representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg.

Lavrov said there was no point in Europe taking part in the talks because “it wants the war to continue and is not prepared to make territorial concessions.” Before boarding the plane to Riyadh, Lavrov made it clear: “I don’t know what [Europeans] are doing at the negotiating table.” US Vice President JD Vance made it clear at this weekend’s Munich Security Conference that he has no interest in Europe taking part in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine, and Moscow has long felt the same. It is citing the failure of the French- and German-sponsored Minsk Accords in 2014, which were supposed to have prevented a full-scale invasion.

Italian Russia analyst Eleonora Tafuro tells ARA that Trump's policy of excluding Europe from the negotiations is a victory for Vladimir Putin: "All his rhetoric towards the Russian population is that he is at war with the United States." "But precisely for this reason it may be the only way to start real negotiations," she believes. Tafuro adds that, although Europe does not have a seat at the negotiating table, "the United States will ask for security guarantees and above all for a contribution to the reconstruction of Ukraine: Europe must fight to be included in the negotiations as soon as possible, or it will find that it can only carry out what Trump says." She also questions whether "European societies have the capacity and political will to exercise these security guarantees: in Italy between 80% and 90% of the population is against sending Italian soldiers to Ukraine."

For Tafuro, "the fact that negotiations on Ukraine have begun is good news, but everything indicates that the way in which they are being negotiated does not bode well for either Ukraine or Europe." As for the prospects of at least reaching a ceasefire, the researcher is sceptical. "What Moscow wants is a ceasefire that will leave it free to attack Ukraine again whenever it wants. It wants time for its army to recover, something that the Ukrainians also need, since they are suffering the most brutal consequences of the war. But if the ceasefire is very volatile and Moscow can attack again, how can it attack again? And he assures that the only way to prevent Russia from returning to the charge with Ukraine is through Washington: "If the United States does not provide security guarantees, it will be very difficult, because the EU does not have the capacity or the political will to do so." And the fact is that Europe remains deeply divided over Ukraine: the Baltic countries already feel at war with Russia, while those in the Mediterranean do not want to hear about it.

Since January 2022, a month before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been no official meeting between the top representatives of Russian and US diplomacy. Rubio told CBS that "there is still a long way to go" before opening negotiations for a ceasefire. The US Secretary of State reiterated that Putin "expressed interest in peace" in the call with Trump, but also clarified that "in the coming days and weeks" it will be seen whether he is "serious or not." "A telephone trick cannot resolve such a complex war, but it can be said that Donald Trump is the only leader of the group that can potentially start this process. Both Rubio will also be at the Riyadh meeting Trump's special envoy to the Near East, Steve Witkoff, and his national security advisor Mike Waltz.

On the other hand, Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is planning to travel to Ukraine here, according to what Zelenski has announced. Kellogg has not confirmed the date and has said that the details of the meeting, during which he will meet with the president, are being finalized. Ukrainian. From NATO to Brussels, Kellogg has stated that "no one will impose a peace agreement" on Ukraine.

"Define an abnormal period"

Lavrov made it clear at the press conference that what the Kremlin wants, beyond Ukraine, is to normalize its relations with the United States, that is, to reduce the international isolation of Vladimir Putin's regime. In the call between the two presidents "they agreed on the need to leave behind a totally abnormal period in relations between the two great powers, during which they only communicated on certain technical and humanitarian issues." Lavrov said that the summit will serve to discuss Ukraine but also the Middle East and "other regions."

Zelensky closes the door

The Ukrainian president will also travel to Riyadh, but has said he will not recognise the results of the bilateral meetings between Washington and Moscow. "Ukraine will not accept it. We knew nothing. And we will consider the results of any negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine to be null and void. We cannot recognise any agreement on us without us," he said at a press conference from the United Arab Emirates. He also said that when he meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he will ask him "what he knows" about the talks in Riyadh.

As European leaders meet in Paris, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov boasted that now, in the world, "everyone is trying to talk about what needs to be done to stop the war, whatever it takes" - a word that until recently could not be uttered within Russia.

Von der Leyen wants to work with the US for a "lasting peace"

Von der Leyen is keeping her hand outstretched to the Trump administration even though it is leaving Europe out of the negotiations. In a short statement issued on Tuesday morning after meeting with Kellogg, the president of the European Commission has reaffirmed her willingness to work together with the US for a "lasting peace" in Ukraine. In this regard, the German conservative has reminded Kellogg that any agreement must respect Ukraine's sovereignty, but the statement does not include any reference to the will of Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to have a seat at the negotiating table.

On the other hand, the European Union is considering increasing military support to Ukraine by 5.2 billion euros, according to the Ukrainian army itself and various international media. Specifically, it is expected that 1.5 billion euros will be allocated to the supply of artillery, air defense systems or long-range missiles. The assistance would also include support for training Ukrainian troops and various military equipment. It should be remembered that, at this time, the EU is the allied power that has given the most support to Kiev during the almost three years of war, around 134 billion euros, of which about 48.5 billion are strictly military aid.