Poland's liberals resist the far-right onslaught in a close-run first round.

BerlinWarsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski will face ultra-conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki in the runoff election on June 1st if exit polls confirm their predictions. Trzaskowski, the candidate of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal and pro-European Civic Platform coalition, is expected to win by a narrow margin with 30.8% of the vote, pending final results from the first round. Nawrocki, a nationalist historian supported by the ultra-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, is expected to receive 29.1% of the vote. Official results will be announced on Monday or Tuesday. Turnout as of 5 p.m. was 50.7%, almost three percentage points higher than three years ago.

Trzaskowski, who was predicted to win by a landslide in the polls, has acknowledged that the first-round result was worse than expected. "It's the home stretch and we will win," the mayor of Warsaw expressed his conviction, urging "total mobilization" for the second round.

"We will win these elections, we are ready to do so, we are determined, and all this will end in our common victory, the victory of Poland," said his rival. Nawrocki thanked the millions of Poles who voted for him and who "did not give in to the pressure of propaganda, falsehood, and lies, who did not succumb to the power of Donald Tusk's state institutions, who had the strength, courage, and determination" to vote for him. Trzaskowski lost the 2020 presidential election to the nationalist Duda, but this time he was the favorite. However, it seemed that Nawrocki's lack of experience, a self-proclaimed admirer of US President Donald Trump, might undermine his popularity. This was not the case.

If the second round of the presidential election were held today, Trzaskowski would obtain 52.8% of the vote and Nawrocki, 41.7%, according to the latest poll. Nawrocki's election campaign has been affected by a real estate scandal. The Polish press has revealed that the ultra-conservative owned an apartment that he had not included in his asset declaration. Nawrocki had acquired the apartment in exchange for caring for an 80-year-old man, but apparently he had not fulfilled his part of the agreement and the elderly man is currently living in a homeless shelter. However, the ultra-conservative candidate maintains that he purchased the property legally. In an attempt to end the controversy, Nawrocki has announced that he will donate the apartment to a charity.

"A referendum on the Tusk government"

A victory for Trzaskowski in the runoff would give a boost to pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has been in power since December 2023. The PiS presents these elections as "a referendum on the Tusk government." The cohabitation between Tusk and Duda this year and a half has been very difficult. The ultra-conservative president used his veto power to block several reforms proposed by Tusk, who had pledged to restore the rule of law, fight corruption, liberalize abortion laws, and grant greater rights to gay people, among other measures.

In contrast, a victory for Nawrocki, who presents himself as a defender of conservative values and national sovereignty, would keep the presidential veto in place. This could strain relations within the liberal, pro-European governing coalition, potentially leading to a breakup. If this were to happen, it could cost Tusk the 2027 elections and open the door to a return to power for ultraconservatives in Poland.

The election outcome could also have profound implications for Europe, according to Marta Prochwicz, a political analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Warsaw. "A victory for Trzaskowski," says Prochwicz, "would cement Poland as an emerging European power committed to strengthening EU integration, defense cooperation, and regional stability. Conversely, a victory for Nawrocki would significantly limit Warsaw's European commitment, potentially jeopardizing initiatives such as the EU-EU security agreement," warns Prochwicz.

Although Poland's pro-American stance and support for Ukraine will remain in place regardless of the outcome, the runoff "will fundamentally determine whether Poland becomes a committed European player or remains partially on the sidelines of the EU project," the researcher emphasizes. Trzaskowski advocates greater European integration and a balanced transatlantic relationship, and is open to more European defense initiatives. Nawrocki, on the other hand, sees these initiatives as a threat to Poland's independence.