The conviction and disqualification of Marine Le Pen for fraud in the hiring of assistants to the European Parliament represents a new earthquake in French politics, already sufficiently weakened in its party system and governance. And, incidentally, in European politics, where the rise of the far right threatens the stability and viability of the Union and casts doubt on the anti-Putin front. While, on the one hand, it seems highly unlikely that the sentence can be reversed to allow the leader of the National Rally (RN) party a chance to run in the 2027 presidential elections, on the other, it is clear that both she and her party will do—and have already begun to do—whatever is necessary to seek a boomerang effect. Although it is clear that their leader has been personally affected, it is too early to consider both the RN party and Le Pen to be damaged and sunk.
In fact, given the case of US President Donald Trump, whose popularity grew with the more convictions against him, there are reasons to believe that the situation could strengthen the support of the faithful for an RN still led by Le Pen, even though he cannot run for the presidency. Her successor, Jordan Bardella, has been on the starting grid for some time. He is nowhere near as popular as her, but he is the party's president and heads the group in the European Parliament. And then there is Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan and vice president of RN, who was convicted in the same case but has not yet been disqualified. Two faithful names that Le Pen can use and that could even guarantee her a grand return in 2032.
From Europe, the leaders of the continental far right—except for Italy's Meloni, who is going it alone—have come out in force to support him. Symptomatically, so has the Kremlin. Both Moscow and other like-minded leaders (Orbán, Wilders, Abascal, Salvini...) have spoken out in defense of a democracy that, with Le Pen as a scapegoat, they see as threatened by the judges.I am Marine", Orbán has tweeted. It's not new, this capgirament discourse of those who, to be protagonists of an afebliment of the state of the law, profit from the idea of championing the ideas of democracy and freedom. Sensibly, in the context of the Ukrainian war, Putin is going to be willing to pose in What democracy did to Europe, with Le Pen as a victim: this is the missatge that has become far and wide in the end. I have known that in times of confusion, victimism tends to work. piles per fer facing the new demagogy of the extreme lepenista dret, which will cast doubt on the credibility of the republican system. With a right faced in the state of xoc, with a Macron playing the international card to save himself, and with the querra also divided and with attractive leaders, a Le Pen turning herself into a victim will not be easy to combat. And even more so when, in the short term, the question arises as to whether RN can support a motion of censure to overthrow Bayrou's government. Instability is rampant in the French Republic, which only weakens Europe.
