Europe is at war with Russia on Ukrainian territory. February will mark four years since the start of the invasion. The drums of war are increasingly beating, signaling a wider conflict. Exaggeration? Self-serving alarmism? The truth is, the geopolitical dynamic is undeniably unpleasant and uncomfortable. No one wants this drift toward war and rearmament. But reality is what it is: Putin's expansionism is explicit and relentless, as are the failures so far of US President Donald Trump in his role as mediator and peacemaker—a role marked by the disruptive closeness he has shown to Moscow and by the pressure on Ukraine to rearm and assume its right to self-defense. This is the situation. It is important not to lose sight of it.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's statements this Thursday should be read in this context. He believes that Europe "is Russia's next target" and says that "we are already in danger." To the point that he asks Western governments to prepare for a war scenario comparable to that experienced by the continent's "grandparents and great-grandparents." However much Rutte's warning is driven by a desire to raise awareness among European governments so that, following Trump's dictates, they increase military spending, the fact remains that Europe is losing the guarantee of Atlanticist defense with the US as its big brother, nor can the unpredictable and unreliable nature of nationalism be minimized. Caught in a US-Russian pincer movement, Europe needs to react. And it is. The German shift is the most striking, first with Schulz and Von der Leyen, and now also with Merz.
Rutte's appeal to the two world wars of the 20th century is not without reason. It's a way of shaking up the European mindset forged during the long period of peace and prosperity the continent has enjoyed since the end of World War II (with the exception of the Balkan regional war in the 1990s, an indirect consequence of the collapse of the former USSR). The Cold War wasn't war; it was ideological confrontation, nuclear deterrence, a division of influence in a bipolar world, and an unstable equilibrium. Wars were outsourced, and Europe remained unscathed.
Therefore, it's understandable that accepting this change of role is difficult. But we must assume responsibility. Ukraine has once again brought the horrors of war to the heart of Europe, a war in which we have a great deal at stake. And, as we are seeing, our American friend is no longer exactly a friend: Trump is unwilling to help—at most, to profit from the aid—and, to make matters worse, he behaves with mocking contempt toward EU institutions and their leaders. His defection forces us to take control of our destiny. The objective is not war, but self-defense. To preserve democracy and well-being, there is no alternative but to strengthen ourselves, including militarily. However much this may violate the pacifism of the majority of generations who have lived and grown up under the protection of NATO, led by the US.
