Is Putin preparing for a new war?

MoscowDonald Trump is convinced he will achieve peace in Ukraine, but everyone here is talking about war: Vladimir Putin says he doesn't want a ceasefire unless he is assured that he won't be attacked afterwards.Volodymyr Zelensky fears that if he disarms, Russia will return to finish the job and reach Kiev; and the European Union is increasing defense spending amidst an unbridled climate of war.

Several European intelligence agencies, such as Germany and Denmark, have recently warned that Russia is preparing for a "large-scale conventional war" within five years. This is one of the greatest fears of the countries bordering the Eurasian giant since the invasion of Ukraine. Now, does the Kremlin want to invade new countries, or is this an unfounded alarm? Is Putin interested in a military conflict with NATO? Could he sustain it?

The Russian president has not directly threatened the West, beyond using the strategy of nuclear deterrence at certain points during the war. However, on February 23, five days after the first meeting with the United States, Putin took advantage of Defenders of the Fatherland Day to warn: "We will continue to improve combat capabilities as an essential component of Russia's present and future security and sovereignty."

Military rhetoric is a constant in Russian public discourse. At the end of last year, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated that "we must be prepared for any development of the situation, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the coming decade". An approach shared by those within the military. Coinciding with the three-year anniversary of the start of the invasion, General Anatoly Kulikov, former Minister of the Interior, made very similar statements, even in the event of peace: "Without wasting a minute, we will have to continue analyzing military events," drawing conclusions from conclusions.

This week, Putin launched the recruitment process for the largest military service in 14 years: 160,000 people. In 2023, the maximum age for conscription was already raised from 27 to 30, with the goal of reaching 1.5 million soldiers by 2026. Russian military experts also see no alternative to escalation. Vladimir Gundarov believes that "Russia must prepare for a global war" and calls for "new reservists" and "technical reequipment." Meanwhile, Ilya Mersh, a blogger with ties to the army command, warns that those hoping to reduce defense investment if a permanent ceasefire is agreed upon "are very mistaken."

And it's not just about spending on the armed forces. The invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated policies aimed at instilling militarism in society. The clearest example is in schools, where in addition to ensuring that children are indoctrinated with the Kremlin narrative, they are often introduced to military culture through activities such as dressing up as soldiers, sending letters to the front, or making camouflage nets.

Real threat or psychosis?

In Putin's narrative, all these moves are defensive, and every Russian military action is intended to guarantee national security. In fact, the Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine is a reaction to protect itself from the Atlantic Alliance. That's why the Russian government uses Western bellicose rhetoric as self-justification and accuses European leaders of being hostile to Ukraine. to believe himself to be Napoleon or Hitler, as the Russian president did with Emmanuel Macron a few weeks ago.

The Finnish case is particularly illustrative. The historically neutral country joined NATO in contrast to the Ukrainian precedent and decided to strengthen its military. This Friday, the Russian ambassador in Helsinki lamented in the online newspaperLenta.ruthat in Finland there is "an atmosphere of military psychosis" and, in the same vein, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, quoted in the same article, complained that "propaganda about the existence of a threat from Russia has a very big impact on the population."

Despite the drums of war, Some experts do not believe that Moscow is in a position to confront NATO. Analyst Anton Barbashin explains to ARA that Russia "is not as strong as some fear" and "would not have the capacity to fight in Ukraine and, simultaneously, invade the Baltics, Romania, or Moldova." He also does not believe that Putin has "the real objective of doing so," despite the ambitions of "certain people" in the Kremlin.

Even the scholars closest to the Russian government's thesis warn of the risks of building a society focused on the war effort. In the magazine Russia in Global Affairs, a leading publication within the Kremlin's orbit, Professor Andrei Tsygankov warns of the limits to socioeconomic development. "Militarism can lead to ruinous arms races, stifle entrepreneurship, fuel corruption, and nurture a culture of force," he writes. Tsygankov adds that armed conflict is a "temporary solution," but that Russian state-building has remained "historically unfinished."

Putin denied until the eve of the attack on Ukraine that he had any intention of going to war. Now Russia is moving firmly toward a state of permanent mobilization, in the face of a West that is rearming and, in its eyes, threatens its security. The Kremlin will never admit that it wants to attack Europe, and if it does, it can always claim it was a self-fulfilling prophecy.