Is it feasible for Canada to join the EU?

BarcelonaCall for annexation, a invasion of greenland, 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian products (suspended for a month), tariffs on aluminum and the threat to tax European imports as well. Donald Trump's geopolitical stretches regarding North American and European partners have not materialized so far, but they have set off alarm bells on both sides of the Atlantic. And in the case of Canada and the European Union, they have opened the debate on greater economic integration.

The extreme case would be a Canadian accession to the EU, something that is not on the table. Last Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Both leaders "stressed the importance of Canada-US cooperation," but nothing more.

Even if it were proposed, Article 49 of the EU Treaty stipulates that in order to join, one must be a sovereign state of Europe. 100% of Canada is in North America; therefore, the door is closed, unlike, for example, Turkey, a predominantly Asian country but which does have part of its territory in Europe. In fact, it would be the same situation that Morocco found itself in in 1987, when Brussels rejected its accession because it is in Africa.

However, there is political and legal scope for more intensive agreements. In fact, Brussels has more or less important bilateral agreements with a large number of countries, some of which contemplate a future entry into the Union, but not all. In other words, Canada could even go so far as to achieve a status as if it were "almost part" of the EU, like Norway already has, says Xavier Ferrer, president of the international economics commission of the College of Economists of Catalonia.

After all, Canada has a political system and society similar to many European countries (parliamentary monarchy, universal healthcare, restrictions on firearms, bilingualism, etc.). Why couldn't it become more integrated?

A country dependent on its southern neighbour

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Canada will end 2025 as the ninth largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures economic activity) of 2.33 trillion US dollars. This would place it as the fourth largest economy in the EU, overtaking Spain and below Germany, France and Italy. On the other hand, in terms of population it would be surpassed by Spain and would be the fifth country (also surpassed by the other three), with 41.5 million inhabitants. In terms of GDP per capita, with 53,834 dollars per inhabitant in 2024, it would be the sixth country in the community bloc, at levels comparable with the Netherlands or Sweden.

The main obstacle to integration with the EU is not a question of size, but of trade. Like most Anglo-Saxon countries, Canada has a strong free trade tradition. This leads Ottawa to promote the signing of free trade agreements. The most important is the USMCA, the 2020 free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States, which replaced a previous treaty, NAFTA, in force since 1994. This agreement is the one that most hinders a hypothetical Canadian integration with the EU.

The treaty makes the country's international trade largely dependent on its southern neighbour: "In 2024, the United States was the destination of 75.9% of all Canadian exports and the source of 62.2% of imports," according to the Canadian statistical agency. The EU is the second largest trading partner, but far behind the US. If Washington puts up new trade barriers, Canadian companies will have a hard time, which would not be the case in the EU, which has "more room for manoeuvre" to counter a tariff attack by Trump, Ferrer points out.

In fact, the strong integration of the Canadian economy with the US through the USMCA is evident in the reluctance that Ottawa has encountered in negotiating the second most important free trade agreement for the country: the CETA (acronym in English for the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) with the EU. The agreement, which eliminated 98% of tariffs between the two blocs, was welcomed in Canada but not so much on the Old Continent. Since 2017, only 17 of the 27 EU states have ratified it and the agreement is provisionally in force. It could still decline, although trade between the two sides has soared by 60% in seven years.

European opposition to CETA

Opposition to CETA points out that Canada has more in common with the US than with the EU. One point of contention is that business disputes should be resolved in a special court rather than in the regular court system. But the bulk of European reluctance is focused on the agri-food sector.

Precisely because Canada is so closely integrated into the USMCA, Canadian food quality standards are much more closely aligned with those in the US. The European automotive industry was also not particularly happy with the agreement, fearing that it would provide a channel for American vehicles to enter the EU.

The silver lining for further EU-Canada integration is in the energy sector. Europe needs cheap gas in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Ottawa can supply (it also produces uranium and minerals of all kinds), and it also needs new buyers since Trump imposed a 10% tariff (also suspended for a month) on all Canadian energy products. Until now, however, the EU "was not in a position to break with US gas," says Ferrer. But if the White House also imposes tariffs on the EU, Canada could be a reliable alternative.