How long can Ukraine hold out without US military aid?

MoscowThe Ukrainian army has withstood three years of Russian aggression, but it has never had to do so without the support of its main ally, the United States. Donald Trump completely cuts off military aid to Volodymyr Zelensky, the scenario will change radically. The American president announced the withdrawal of his aid to Ukraine on Monday evening, and not even the response of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who expressed his willingness to negotiate "a partial truce" and then open a peace process "under the strong leadership" of Trump, have not made him back down. In his speech before the United States Congress, Trump has said he "appreciates" Zelensky's change of stance and thanked him for "the letter." "At the same time, we have had serious discussions with Russia and have received strong signals that they are ready for peace. Wouldn't that be nice?" he added. But he made no announcement reversing the freeze on military aid to Ukraine that he had announced on Monday night.

Sources on the ground and experts agree that the impact on the front will undoubtedly be felt because There are weapons that Europe cannot guarantee to Kiev, such as missiles for anti-aircraft defences or mobile rocket launchers. However, everyone rules out the possibility of immediate collapse. Most believe that Ukraine will be able to hold out for about six months, although forecasts range from sixty days to a year. One of the unknowns is whether the United States will also stop providing intelligence data, an extreme that would greatly worsen the prognosis for Ukrainian troops. On the other hand, Russian bloggers are currently criticising Trump's arm-twisting because he will not weaken one of the main threats against Vladimir Putin's army, drone attacks.

Anti-aircraft defenses and rocket launchers

Ukraine's main supply problem is Patriot air defence missiles, which are used to protect cities from bombing. This ammunition is produced only in the United States, and once the stocks run out, the Kiev army will have to choose even more which installations to shield from Russian attack. Another type of missile that Europe will not be able to fully replace is the one used for mobile rocket launchers, the MLRS and HIMARS. This will leave Ukrainian troops without long-range artillery and, as Russian military blogger Aleksander Kots points out, they will not be able to carry out high-precision rear-line strikes against, for example, weapons depots, airfields or training camps. This weaponry had been crucial in forcing the Kremlin to move its aircraft away from the front. American experts acknowledge that European armies have other air defence systems and rocket launchers, but warn that the American ones are better and already deployed.

Less critical for Ukraine will be the supply of artillery shells. Ukrainians themselves produce them in large quantities, and since the beginning of the war, European industry has increased its production capacity. It will also be possible to replace American tanks with Leopard 2s, and infantry vehicles with Marders, both models manufactured in Germany.

Ukraine's big fear: intelligence data

Another key technology that supplies the US to Volodymyr Zelensky is Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system, which the Ukrainian military uses to communicate on the front. If the tycoon were to choose to leave Kiev in the dark, the country's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov has recently stated that they already have a temporary solution to replace it and, according to him, The Economist, could be ready within a few days.

Much more delicate would be if Donald Trump decided to stop sharing intelligence data with Ukraine. This information allows Ukrainian soldiers to detect Russian air strikes, troop movements or strategic enemy locations. If the US president carries out the threat, that would be devastating, according to independent Russian military analyst Yuri Fedorov, because "Europe would not be able to compensate." From Ukraine, activist and politician Mustafa Nayyem also points to this possibility as his "great fear" although he does not believe that the United States would dare to do so.

Drones, the nightmare of Russian air lines

The main concern on the Russian side is that even without US support, Ukraine will continue to produce drones. Blogger Kots points out that this is "its main strike force" and does not depend on supplies from Washington. Pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Oleg Tsariov gives the figures: 85% of frontline casualties are caused by drones, stressing that the components used to assemble them are sourced from China. Nayyem also downplays the importance of US parts in the assembly of these devices and believes that replacement parts are easy to find.

Impossible predictions

There is pessimism on the Ukrainian side but not despair. A senior Ukrainian intelligence official assures the Financial Times supplies will run out in two to three months. Then, he adds, the situation "will be very difficult, but it will not reach collapse." In the independent Russian media Ancient History, a former Ukrainian officer also rules out collapse, but warns that "more soldiers and civilians will die," especially when air defenses run out of missiles. In the United States, reserve colonel Mark Cancian believes that the consequences for Ukraine will be "crippling" and gives soldiers a window of resistance of between two and four months. Meanwhile, in Russia, the most pessimistic about their interests are military bloggers, who see the enemy army capable of resisting between six months and a year.

These forecasts will also vary depending on a major unresolved question. Beyond whether Trump takes the fight to Zelensky to the end and cuts off the tap in Ukraine irreversibly, it remains to be seen whether he allows Ukraine and its European allies to buy weapons in the United States. Before this latest stretchbot, the American president had opened the door, but his unpredictability makes any kind of calculation difficult. Trump is behaving as if he is in a game of cards, as if instead of Ukrainian lives, only money was at stake. He is betting everything on forcing his opponents to show their hand. What only he knows at this point is whether he has a poker hand or whether, in the name of peace, he is going for broke. lantern.