Europe's dilemma after the golf game between Trump and the Finnish president

BrusselsEurope is clear that it wants to recover commercial and military autonomy from the United States, but it has been outsourcing its defense to the United States for the past eighty years and is its main economic ally. This relationship of dependence, obviously, cannot be reversed overnight, even though the Donald Trump administration has launched a major tariff offensive against the European Union and seeks to disengage from the security it has provided to its European allies since the end of World War II. For this reason, during this time, European leaders are doing everything possible to minimize threats from across the Atlantic and, in turn, are preparing to stop depending on Washington, especially the Pentagon.

This balancing act by European leaders has been evident in the golf game played by Trump and the President of Finland, the conservative Alexander Stubb. Finland is one of the states on the continent that most fears the expansionism of Vladimir Putin's regime and is one of those most potentially affected by the White House's alignment with the Kremlin and the Republican leader's desire to gradually withdraw US troops from Europe. However, precisely for this reason, the Finnish leader has consistently avoided attacking Washington's policies and has opted to try to strengthen ties with Trump despite the constant attacks. "1,300 kilometers of border with Russia is no joke, and of course, they prefer to have the Americans on their side," notes a NATO diplomatic source.

In this context, the states that, for geographical reasons, feel the Russian threat closer are staunch defenders of the Atlantic Alliance and of keeping US troops on their side. On the contrary, they do not see clearly—at least at this time—relying solely on its military capabilities and those of other European allies, although they want to strengthen them so that they can be relied upon in the medium to long term. In this regard, the same NATO sources point out that it is "hard to believe" that, for example, France would offer nuclear protection in Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, or the Nordic countries. as suggested by Emmanuel MacronWhile they question whether Paris is truly fully prepared, they assert that it is not currently in a position to provide that umbrella of deterrence.

In contrast, southern European countries such as France, Spain and Italy have often been more inclined to opt for forces that are more European in obedience than those of the United States, which controls de facto NATO. The main reason is that, as they themselves admit, they don't see Russian expansionism as such an immediate measure and don't find the Pentagon's military capabilities so necessary in the short term.

The European leaders' balance with Trump, however, doesn't mean they're preparing for a potential US withdrawal. The future chancellor himself, the convinced Atlanticist Friedrich Merz, proclaimed on the very day he won the German elections that Europe's "independence" from the United States in military matters was essential. A position that is largely shared—although perhaps not with the same force—by the vast majority of European powers.

In this regard, several countries, such as Germany and France, have proposed major measures to regain military power. Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission has already presented a major rearmament plan, which aims to mobilize €800 billion in just four years and has already received the approval of the member states. Furthermore, the European partners that spend the least on defense, like Spain, Belgium or Portugal, have already announced that they want to accelerate the pace of military spending increases.