Guillem Monsonís: "Europe is not ready for war; it would only last a few days."

ParisGuillem Monsonís, a Frenchman with exiled Valencians, is a defense expert and head of communications for KNDS France, the French public defense company. Since the beginning of the war in UkraineThe Franco-German group KNDS has seen demand explode. In 2024, the multinational saw orders increase by 40% compared to the previous year and achieved a turnover of €3.8 billion. To adapt to wartime conditions, the group has hired an additional 1,000 workers, increased production, and is preparing to respond to French President Emmanuel Macron's call for the French defense industry to produce "more and faster" to confront the Russian threat and the retreat of the United States.

With the war in Ukraine first and now the US distancing itself, Macron and Brussels are calling for European rearmament. Is European industry ready?

— Rearmament began in the summer of 2022. Since then, in a very short time, we have moved from an economic system in which we produced only when we had orders to a hybrid model in which we have stocks for the first time. To produce more and more quickly, we have had to build up significant stocks of raw materials, parts we need for artillery systems.

Now, with Trump as US president, Macron has called for the defense industry to produce more and more quickly. It is possible to expand production in the short term.?

— It can't be done overnight. It requires a huge investment, production lines, and a complete change, producing artillery systems or munitions that aren't in demand. Today, the European army and industry are not fully equipped for high-intensity warfare. Changing industry to produce more requires investment and time. However, in the last three years, we have managed to significantly increase production levels.

Can we say that European industry currently lacks sufficient production capacity, despite the increase?

— Yes, there is, first and foremost, a problem of production capacity. In Europe, we know how to make everything: fighters, tanks, and artillery systems. But production capacity isn't sufficient to arm all European armies.

Around 78% of defense purchases made by European Union countries are made in third countries. Does this demonstrate the difficulty of Europe's sovereignty?

— Yes, it's a problem in itself, but buying from outside Europe also means European armies have a very wide variety of weapons, which impedes interoperability and connections between armies, making it difficult for them to work together. The idea now on the table is that it's necessary to buy from Europe to avoid dependence on other countries and to strengthen European industry.

Is Europe ready to face the Russian threat?

— The problem with European armies is that they don't have ammunition stockpiles that last. War economy requires the capacity to face a war or a high-intensity confrontation that lasts for a long time, and can last on the battlefield for more than three days. Today, the format of European armies and their stockpiles are designed to last only a few days.

Are you saying that if Russia attacks an EU country, Europe will only be able to withstand the war for three days?

— The point is that if Russia attacks Europe tomorrow, we don't have the capacity... We should buy from abroad. I mean, we have the defense capacity. We have enough systems, enough aircraft, enough tanks, but we can't last because we don't have enough ammunition. Russia's strength lies in the amount of weapons and systems it possesses. For example: at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia fired 50,000 artillery shells per day. KNDS's capacity is to manufacture 100,000 artillery shells per year. It's impossible to compare. And that's the problem. Europe has the resources and a technological advantage, but it lacks the independence in intelligence, strategic transport, and logistics to be able to last in a war.

But if a European country is attacked, the United States, which is part of NATO, should defend Europe.

— The United States also has ammunition problems. But I'll tell you something: even allies, who we think will be there to help if there's a war or a problem, don't always act this way. When the war in Ukraine started, Sweden had propellant powder, which is very important because it allows you to propel the artillery shell inside the tube. France didn't have any and wanted to buy it from Sweden. Well, that country said no, that the priority was its army. This is normal; each country wants to prioritize its army and, if there's any leftover, sell it to allies. It's the same thing that happened with the COVID vaccine: if we don't have our own production capacity, we'll never be sure that we'll have it when we need something.

Macron has been calling for Europe to become self-sufficient and less dependent on the US for defense for many years. Has he been a visionary?

— I would date it back even to before the European Union. The idea came from General de Gaulle, who said that for France's security and sovereignty, it couldn't depend on either of the two great powers of the time. That's why France needed its own nuclear weapons, weapons, and programs for energy and military independence. That's why France refused to have US military bases on its territory. However, there is still a lot of dependence.

Does this have to do with the US controlling the software of European military aircraft? 

— The software issue is the most visible and the most spectacular because Washington can control your plane from taking off. But it's much more than that. Any American company that manufactures aircraft or military equipment has a sales license. This means that the United States can limit the use of a military system if it's made with its own software. Not to mention the European countries that continue to buy American systems, like Greece, Germany, Belgium... And if there's dependence, there's no strategic autonomy. There's no sovereignty.