Europe awaits a new German government with candles

BrusselsThe European Union is at a decisive moment and both France and Germany, immersed in a crisis of ungovernability, are out of the international scene. Despite the Emmanuel Macron's attempts, the Franco-German axis has been unable to lead a European-wide response to the return of Donald Trump, especially because of what it means for the resolution of the war in Ukraine and the threat of ending the transatlantic relations that have marked the world order since the end of the Second World War. Now, however, the new arithmetic of the Bundestag opens the door to a much more stable government than that of Olaf Scholz and the possibility of Germany once again setting itself up as the helm of the continent.

In fact, this has been one of the main messages tonight from the winner of the elections and future chancellor, Friedrich Merz. "The world will not wait for us. [...] We must be able to act again and quickly, so that we are once again present in Europe and so that the world sees it: Germany once again has a reliable government," said the conservative leader, who has already called for negotiations to begin for a coalition government as soon as possible. In this sense, although it has not been addressed, everything points to the fact that a government agreement will have to be reached with the Social Democrats and the so-called Grand Coalition will be formed again.

The possibility of a new German executive with the presence of the CDU and the SPD, and very broad parliamentary support, already represents an important change in relation to the Scholz government, which was very weakened. In recent years, Germany has often given contradictory signals in Brussels - each formation of the tripartite government said its own - and has adopted a more secondary role in all the major discussions. This contrasts greatly with the stability and solidity of Angela Merkel's governments, of which three of the four that she led were Grand Coalition governments.

In this sense, a diplomatic source from the European institutions pointed out this week that the EU "needs Germany's return" and that it "contributes to forming a common front" against Trump. "We are at a crucial moment for our future, but we have France and Germany in crisis, Italy with Meloni, and only a certain leadership from Poland and Spain," this diplomat reflected. In fact, at the Paris summit called by Macron On Monday, the urgent talks highlighted the lack of leadership by France and Germany, which are divided over whether it is necessary to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine to ensure a potential ceasefire or peace agreement.

The President of the European Council, António Costa, has announced that a new extraordinary summit of European leaders will be held in Brussels on March 6, just after the first electoral projections for this Sunday's elections have been made public and it has therefore become clear who will probably lead Germany. However, the main issue to be addressed at this meeting of EU heads of state and government is the war in Ukraine and the military autonomy of the community bloc. "We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security. [...] The member states are ready to make decisions," Costa has assured on social media, ignoring the challenge posed by the Trump administration.

A new voice for Europe

Scholz has hardly raised his voice in his final days and has kept a low profile until the end. Merz, on the other hand, did react more forcefully, for example, to the harangue against European democratic values The US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Conference last week. Although the conservative leader was a great Atlanticist, he stressed that Europe "is facing a change of era" and called for a reaction as soon as possible. "We are really facing a change of era. If we do not feel the alarm now, it may already be too late for the entire EU," Merz warned.

However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who is completely aligned with Trump, congratulated Merz on his election results and already pressured him to "increase military spending." "I look forward to working with you at this crucial moment for our security. [...] Your leadership will be key," the Dutch leader tweeted.

Beyond the war in Ukraine and relations with Washington, the new German government will also be key in other big decisions which are currently on the EU table. Among others, the relaxation of fiscal rules and the creation of new Eurobonds to rearm, migration policies, the green agenda and the way to boost the competitiveness of European industry, which is losing strength - especially in Germany - compared to the United States and China.