ERC increases lead over JxCat and would win the next Parliamentary elections
Vox would enter the Catalan Parliament for the first time with between 7 and 8 deputies
BarcelonaA week of intense demonstrations, with three polls in a few days, drawing a picture of ERC's chances of victory in the next parliamentary elections. Both the Institute of Political and Social Sciences and the Center for Sociological Research pointed to the advantage of the Republicans, but the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) is the only one that has risked making a prognosis of the results: ERC, with 24.4% of the votes, would obtain 36-37 seats next February 14th; JxCat would follow with 28-30 seats and 18.7% of the votes. At the top of the estimate, the two current members of the Government would reach 67 seats, which would not be enough to form a majority government and, therefore, would force them to seek alliances among the other parliamentary parties. According to the data, pro-independence would exceed 50% of the votes if ERC, JxCat and the CUP were also joined by the PDECat (50.8%).
One of the highlights of the survey is the emergence of the far right Vox in Parliament. The party polls twice as high as in July and could opt to achieve between 7 and 8 seats, generating a quadruple tie with the PP (8-9), Catalunya en Comú Podem (7-9) and the CUP (6-8). The PDECat also has options to get access Parliament with only one deputy. In between, the PSC stagnates with 22-23 seats and Cs continues falling, achieving only 13-14 seats.
The pre-campaign has been going on for weeks now and the CEO's barometer shows the effect that the disqualification of the president, Quim Torra, and his temporary replacement by the vice-president Pere Aragonès may have had. The survey was conducted in person between October 13 and November 7 to 2,000 people. Even so, it still does not ask people's opinions of Aragonès or of the pre-candidates for JxCat.