The IMF revises Spanish GDP upwards amid the tariff crisis

MadridAmid the trade storm, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) brings good news to Spain. The organization has revised upwards the growth of the Spanish economy for 2025 and places the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) at 2.5%, which is two-tenths of a percentage point higher than the last estimate. Thus, the IMF aligns itself with the Spanish government regarding its growth forecast for this year, but also with the Fiscal Authority (AIREF), which this Thursday announced that it maintains its growth estimate for Spain. The Bank of Spain was the only organization that confirmed that it will revise GDP growth downwards due to the trade war. The institution chaired by José Luis Escrivá forecast an economic growth of 2.7% in 2025, a more optimistic estimate than that of the Spanish government.

The IMF acknowledges that the trade policies and tariffs announced (and for now suspended) by the United States are fraught with uncertainty, but speaks of a "contained" adverse impact on Spain due to the "limited direct and indirect trade exposure with the US." The organization, chaired by Kristalina Georgieva, places Spain as one of the economies with the highest growth in the Eurozone in 2025, but warns of a slowdown starting in 2026.

Esther Gordo, the economic analysis division of the Fiscal Authority, said this Thursday. Thus, the organization does not change its growth forecast (2.5%), but it has given its opinion on the extent of the impact: the tariff crisis, in the eyes of the Airef, could subtract up to 0.5 percentage points from GDP. "Until [the situation] stabilizes, we cannot transfer an impact to growth," Gordo reiterated, who recalled that in just 24 hours the game board has changed after the United States has suspended for 90 days and for much of the world the latest tariffs announcedThe European Union has done the same.

A "changing and dynamic" trade war

The Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, also struggles to predict where the trade war with the United States will go: "The scenario is changing and dynamic," he stated. As a result, the minister indicated that the response, and therefore the measures, will have to be adapted at all times.

Cuerpo met with the autonomous communities to address the Spanish government's first shock plan to address Donald Trump's tariffs. The minister has announced weekly and monthly contacts with all of them. Various councilors, many of them from the People's Party (PP), have welcomed the minister's "conversational" tone. Although many regions are proposing direct aid for the affected sectors, Cuerpo maintains that the Spanish government's plan is already sound.

The minister took the opportunity to defend Spanish President Pedro Sánchez's trip to China, which the People's Party (PP) has criticized. "[The official visit to China] is compatible with protecting the strategic relationship with the United States," Cuerpo stated. From China, Sánchez welcomed the United States' decision to pause the tariffs: "It opens the door to negotiation," he said.