Welcome to Belarus: how Europe's last dictatorship survives

Minsk (Belarus)The welcome to the so-called "last dictatorship in Europe" is not warm. At the border, in a room that looks like a Cold War set, a camera records the interrogation by a Belarusian soldier.–What are you doing in Belarus? –he asks.–Tourism –he says. I am the last of the four foreigners on the bus from Warsaw to Brest to be interviewed.The soldier rummages through my phone without letting me see the screen, but later I will know that he has looked at my social media interactions, deleted photographs, and contact list. He asks me about work and studies, about interest in the country. The questions are not exhaustive. The interview is a message: once inside the country, they are in control.Since the 2020 protests, the stability of Alexander Lukashenko's regime hangs by a thread. Despite the violent repression of the opposition, the fear of another protest movement, organized from exile, persists. To the political tension are added the criticisms and sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which Belarus has supported. The regime does not expect foreigners to be in its favor, but it wants to dissuade them from being instigators or participants in any internal revolt. – Do you know anyone from Ukraine?–Yes, an old classmate.–And do you live there?–No, she lives in Belgium. It’s been a long time since I last spoke.Ties with Ukrainian people or members of the Belarusian diaspora are a source of suspicion. A few seconds later, the soldier shows me, on my screen, a contact with a Slavic name. It's my acquaintance. He doesn't ask me any more questions, but he has already sown unease about my privacy in the country. He returns my phone and the stamped passport. "Everything is fine," he says, and I cross the barrier into Belarus. Once inside, surveillance seems nonexistent: no one will control where we go or who we talk to.To stay in power for three decades, Aleksandr Lukashenko has done more than resort to violence. With his allies, he has created a propaganda machine that allows him to dominate discourse and opinions and fight external ideas and influences. They do not need to implement total censorship, but they do need to control how information is interpreted.Savior of the fatherland

In January, Lukashenko secured the presidency with his seventh electoral victory, with 86% of the votes, in elections that all international observers have denounced as rigged. "The Belarusians elect me –Lukashenko said in an interview–. It is important to me how my people see me, not if they consider me legitimate abroad." The important thing is to control the internal narrative, in which real resistance has emerged.Since the collapse of the USSR, the name Lukashenko has been inseparable from that of Belarus. The president defines the country and is its gravitational center. But Lukashenko's cult of personality is subtle. He has no monuments nor does he occupy more time in the news than other heads of state. In Belarus, every square has a statue of Lenin, but there is no trace of the current leader. His cult is related to a more refined omnipresence.His followers call him batka (father in Belarusian) and describe him as a reconciling leader and savior of the homeland. Lukashenko, they say, has guided Belarus from childhood, the crisis of the 90s, to prosperity. His government inherited a Soviet economy that had improved the country's state and managed to maintain moderate growth until 2020. The relative economic success has not only made Lukashenko popular, but has also endeared him.

The media, mostly state-owned, venerate him. Worship is taught from a young age. In the children's section of bookstores, there are titles such as For the Children, About Elections or About the Constitution, with Lukashenko as the ultimate creator and defender. The chapter on the history of Belarusian democracy begins and ends with his photograph, both in the book and in real life.The 1994 elections were the first and last free elections in the country. Since then, Belarus has been a dictatorship. This message reaches Belarusian citizens via the internet, but propaganda also works to counteract it, especially on Telegram. The tone of the reaction is sarcastic: "Of course we have a dictatorship: the dictatorship of well-being, of the defense of Belarusians".Repression to maintain power

Any criticism is discredited, especially foreign criticism. The newspaper Minskaya Pravda published that Reporters Without Borders places Belarus in 166th place in press freedom. "What a surprise – says the newspaper –. An organization secretly funded by France places us at the bottom of the ranking, and, on the other hand, places Ukraine at the top." The message is clear: the West is against them and no outside information is credible.Alleged secret foreign funding has also justified the closure of more than 270 NGOs for being "contrary to national interests". With the same argument, participants in the 2020 protests have been imprisoned. Currently, more than 1,300 political prisoners are in penal colonies, judged as spies or aggressors. Propaganda considers democracy defenders enemies of the people and freedom, and subjects of the European Union. They are not seen as political opponents, but as aggressors who want to destroy the country and turn it into a puppet of the West. Internal repression is not secret and functions as a deterrent, but it has closed the doors to Europe. The struggle extends to official symbols. 2025 will be the thirtieth anniversary of the referendum that put the design of the flag, inherited from the USSR, to a vote. Green and red are omnipresent in the streets, from the buildings of Minsk to the roundabouts in the villages.A satellite of Russia?

The truth is that Belarus's alliance with Russia is, at the same time, a necessity and an obstacle to having a better relationship with its neighbors. The Belarusian president cannot, nor does he want to, break the relationship with Putin. Without the subsidies for oil and gas, diplomatic support, and aid to maintain internal stability, his regime would hang by a thread. In return, Lukashenko adopts the Kremlin's narrative about the rise of fascism in the European Union, about the "special military operation," and about Ukraine as a Western puppet. During the war, he has allowed Russia to transport weapons and soldiers towards Kyiv through his territory, although he has not directly involved the Belarusian army. However, the leader does not hesitate to reject a possible merger with Russia: "We are two independent countries within a union."

Belarus's sovereignty is the guarantee of the existence of Lukashenko's regime and his position of power. That is why he does not hesitate to issue threats. "As soon as a boot crosses our border – he announced to his people before the Victory Day military parade – the response will be as swift as lightning." Lukashenko was speaking into a microphone, clad in a military uniform. He recalled having "something that can inflict irreparable damage" at his disposal: Russian nuclear weapons stored in the country.In Belarus, Lukashenko is not only the leader, but also the protective father of the homeland and its greatest driving force. He was key to survival in the past and it is necessary to build the future. But to stay in power, the president has covered the country's eyes with a green and red ribbon that does not allow one to see beyond. And each year he tightens it a little more. But it doesn't seem like he can stretch the fabric much further without breaking it, and cracks keep appearing after three decades of tension.