Ukraine takes an unprecedented step in the war by attacking the Russian fleet in the shadows

MoscowIn the midst of peace negotiations, Volodymyr Zelensky wants to demonstrate to Donald Trump that he still has a greater capacity to damage the Russian economy. Ukraine has crossed a line it had previously respected by attacking ships transporting Russian oil under the flags of third countries—the so-called shadow fleet, which the Kremlin uses to circumvent sanctions. Until now, Kyiv had not dared to send drones against civilian vessels for fear of the reaction from its allies, but in less than two weeks it has already damaged five, the last one on Wednesday night. Ukrainian special services have only acknowledged three of the attacks, all in the Black Sea, but two other ships suffered explosions in different locations: one off the coast of Turkey and the other off the west coast of Africa, in Senegalese waters. None of the impacts caused injuries or fuel spills. This escalation must be framed within the campaign that Ukraine has been carrying out against the Russian oil sector since the summerInitially, it was limited to bombings of refineries and crude oil depots; later, with US approval, it struck major Russian oil export ports, another red line until then, and now it has gone a step further by attacking the shadow fleet. It is also no coincidence that this renewed effort to cripple one of the Kremlin's main means of financing the war comes just as new US sanctions against Russia's two major oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, have taken effect. As Moscow's access to the crude oil market is restricted, the Russian government is seeking alternative ways to distribute its products through these ships, which operate with highly opaque corporate structures. The European Union has sanctioned more than 500 of them.

But for Ukraine, this isn't enough because Russia constantly finds loopholes to circumvent the sanctions. Hence, it resorts to coercion. And, for the moment, it's working, as demonstrated by the fact that one of the owners of the damaged ships has already announced it will stop loading Russian fuel. Furthermore, as a result of the attacks, the cost of insuring these vessels has skyrocketed, and this could further discourage traffic in the Black Sea.

Trump hasn't commented on the attacks, but his allies have, and they are nervous. Turkey warned that the incidents had created "serious risks to the safety of shipping, human life, and the environment." Shortly afterward, the Romanian coast guard had to shoot down a Ukrainian naval drone off its coast. And, meanwhile, the Baltic states have called on Kyiv not to attack ships in their waters because "it would not be prudent."

Putin threatens to sink ships

Vladimir Putin accuses the Ukrainian army of "piracy" and threatens to sink ships carrying grain, metals, and other goods from Ukrainian ports, even if they fly foreign flags. "The most radical solution is to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea," he said, in what could also be interpreted as a warning of intentions to invade the coastal region of Odessa, Ukraine's last remaining unoccupied maritime outlet. He also omitted the fact that, in mid-November, Russian drones set fire to a Turkish cargo ship unloading liquefied gas at a Ukrainian port, the day after Zelensky signed an agreement to import that energy source from the United States. Shipping in the Black Sea had been relatively calm for many months. Trade levels had almost recovered to pre-war levels after Russia nearly triggered a global food crisis in 2022 by blocking the distribution of Ukrainian grain. Now Kyiv's new strategy could disrupt that balance.

Trump's renewed negotiating push has not led to a decrease in hostilities; quite the opposite. In recent weeks, the Russian military has also increased its bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing major blackouts in the country's main cities. Both sides are trying to maximize their resources to demonstrate their military potential to the White House, while the US president grows frustrated seeing that neither side seems desperate enough to sign a deal at any price.