Two months without a ceasefire in Gaza: the genocide continues

BarcelonaThe supposed law came into effect on October 10. the ceasefire in Gaza that Donald Trump announced with great fanfare and which was supposed to be the first phase of his peace plan. In this first phase, according to the US president's 20-point plan, Israel was to halt its genocidal war against Gaza, withdraw troops, and allow aid to enter while the exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners was completed. But the reality on the ground is far from even minimal pacification: the Israeli army continues to kill the population of the Strip with bombs, hunger, cold, and disease, and continues to occupy two-thirds of its territory, behind a line that seems more permanent with each passing day. Hamas plans to hand over the body of the last Israeli hostage it holds in Gaza in the coming days, and now the second phase should begin, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said will be launched this month.

How has this ceasefire, more declarative than real, of this first phase worked? And what are the options for moving forward in the second phase?

At least 386 civilians have been killed

The ceasefire exists only on paper. According to Gaza authorities, Israel has violated it 730 times (an average of 12 attacks per day), including 205 attacks with bullets against civilians, 37 military incursions into residential areas, 358 bombings, and 138 demolitions of homes and other civilian buildings. In these 60 days, the toll is 386 civilians killed and 980 wounded, in addition to 43 detained, according to the same count.

In a telephone conversation between ARA and Samir Zaqout, co-director of the NGO Al Mezan, speaking from the center of the Gaza Strip, he expressed pessimism: "This ceasefire agreement is a kind of whitewash. It only aims to deceive the solidarity movement with the Palestinians worldwide, because the genocide is still there, erasing and destroying. This is all a farce."

Israel occupies 58% of the territory of Gaza

The agreement envisions a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, and the deployment of an international force comprised of Arab and Muslim countries to impose order in the Strip—a force that, so far, no one has offered to form. According to the plan, the Israeli army was to withdraw to the so-called Yellow Line, which was initially a vaguely defined imaginary line, but which the army has materialized in the form of yellow-painted concrete blocks. Hamas accuses Israel of advancing this Yellow Line, displacing the residents who remain on the other side and killing Palestinians who approach a boundary that is not clearly marked. Satellite images show that in some places the line is hundreds of meters further along than the original design. Currently, Israeli troops occupy 58% of the Gaza Strip, primarily its agricultural area, as well as the southern area along the border with Egypt. Both areas have been emptied through bombing and forced evacuation orders. The two million Palestinians who have survived the genocide are crammed into the remaining territory along the coast: Gaza, already one of the most densely populated areas in the world, is now twice as densely populated. East of the Yellow Line, in the so-called "Green Zone," Israel has said it will unilaterally implement its reconstruction plans. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir declared on Sunday that the army will maintain its current positions and considers the Yellow Line "a new border, functioning as a forward defensive line for our communities and as a line of operational activity." Trump's plan specifies that "Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza," but Tel Aviv is implementing a fait accompli.

To kill by starvation and cold

The ceasefire is not providing any humanitarian relief. Israel continues to block the entry of aid trucks through its border crossings, as well as through the Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt. The ceasefire agreement stipulates the entry of 600 trucks per day (based on calculations made years ago by Israeli authorities to subject the population of Gaza to a "weight-loss diet"), but the reality is that in these 60 days, according to UN data, only 7.57 trucks have entered. Including commercial trucks, the total does not exceed 14,000.

This perpetuates the shortages of food, medicine, water, and fuel: only 315 fuel trucks have entered Gaza out of the 3,000 planned for hospitals, bakeries, and water purification plants. NGOs warn that the situation remains desperate, although cases of malnutrition are beginning to stabilize slightly. In October, UNICEF and other NGOs identified nearly 9,300 children under five suffering from severe malnutrition caused by the siege. The situation will worsen this Wednesday with the arrival of polar storm Biron, which, according to Hamas authorities, threatens to cause severe flooding in the flimsy tents where 1.5 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip live, with coastal areas being the most affected.

Furthermore, Israel, with a Supreme Court ruling to back it up, continues to block independent access for the international press to Gaza, as well as the entry of many aid workers, and the activities of UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, the only actor with the real capacity for mass distribution.

And the next phase?

Netanyahu has not yet declared an end to the war, and the reality on the ground is far from hopeful. But the fact remains that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now more dependent on the support of the Trump administration than ever before to stay in power. "Israel has never had a leader in such a weak position, and the United States will never have a better opportunity to push through its deal," says Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House. Trump has supported Netanyahu's request for a presidential pardon to escape the corruption cases plaguing him, and Trump simultaneously serves as a shield against his far-right partners, who continue to advocate the annihilation of Gaza and the complete occupation of the Strip.

The second phase of Trump's plan, which has the approval of European countries, including Spain, and also of Arab regimes, addresses the governance of Gaza the following day. The plan received the support of the UN Security Council, with Russia and China abstaining in the final vote, having previously vetoed resolutions against the Palestinians. It envisions a transitional phase to a technocratic Palestinian government, overseen by a Peace Council, which was to be headed by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair's candidacy appears to have been dropped due to opposition from Arab countries—particularly Egypt, Qatar, and Jordan. Hamas and the other Palestinian factions reject any foreign tutelage over Gaza and have also opposed the Security Council resolution, which they believe "opens the door to impositions contrary to the Palestinian national will." The second phase should also include the disarmament of Hamas, which has expressed openness to "freezing" its weapons but not surrendering them. What remains unclear is what negotiating power the Palestinian Islamist movement retains. And on the horizon, it doesn't appear that Israel intends to recognize the Palestinian state, which the United States, Arab countries, and Europe see as the definitive solution to the conflict.