Trump tells Iranians that "help is coming" and cancels "all meetings with representatives" of the regime

WashingtonAfter the regime of the ayatollahs has admitted to 2,000 deaths in the protests of recent days, US President Donald Trump has sent a cryptic message of support to the protesters, assuring them that "help is on the way." The tycoon had already warned of possible military action against Iran if the repression continued to escalate, and the White House is considering various options, ranging from renewed bombings to deploying Starlink satellites to end the internet blackout imposed by the ayatollahs. In the same post on Truth Social, the tycoon also stated that he has canceled "all meetings with Iranian representatives" until "these killings of protesters stop" and urged them to "take over the institutions."

Yesterday, an administration official explained toWall Street JournalThe White House was reportedly considering a last-minute Iranian offer to diplomatically address the limitations on its nuclear program. Some members of the administration, led by Vice President JD Vance, are urging Trump to explore diplomatic options before punishing Iran for the deaths of the protesters. But this morning's statements represent a new twist that makes a diplomatic solution even less likely. Acknowledging the 2,000 deaths crosses a red line that the president had clearly drawn, "so it's very likely that we'll see a response in the coming days. It's very difficult for him to do nothing after drawing this line," Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Center (AFPC), explained to ARA. The scenarios are uncertain and difficult to predict regarding what Trump means when he says "help is on the way." That same afternoon, Bloomberg reported that Musk had offered his Starlink satellites to break the internet blackout in Iran should it persist.

Should the tycoon ultimately opt for military action, Berman suggests it would involve attacks on symbolic power sites of the ayatollahs. "As Trump moves toward the idea that fundamental regime change is necessary, he will begin to think about attacking the elements through which the regime projects its power within the country. This means facilities of the Revolutionary Guard, or facilities of the Basij, the local militia. I think the objective here will not be regime change for the Iranians, but rather eliminating the capabilities."

An attack on symbolic regime power sites would also fit with Trump's populist strategy: the president always seeks short-term but impactful victories to sell domestically. It's the same pattern seen in Venezuela: a spectacular military operation, with elite units, to kidnap Nicolás Maduro and get the photo op, but which doesn't address the country's underlying problems.

Berman points out that "Trump is not a regime changer in himself," but that the US administration is very likely pushing in that direction to make it happen. "Because of what the regime is doing and how Trump is responding, it can be seen as an attempt to force the supreme leader out, while keeping much of the rest of the regime intact. Although I think this scenario is becoming less and less likely as time goes on." He adds: "If the regime does eventually fall, it will look very much like Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The ideological government disappeared, but the power structures all remained intact. And over time, these power structures reassert themselves."

On Monday night, Trump announced that any country that maintains trade relations with Iran will have to pay a 25% tariff on trade with the US. Iran has been subjected to harsh sanctions from Washington for years, and what the White House is now proposing is to pressure it indirectly through its partners. At the moment, there is still no official document formalizing the new tariffs, nor is it clear whether they will affect all countries.