Trump's amnesty law and more sanctions: two ways to free Bolsonaro from prison

São PauloDonald Trump's interference, which in August imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, has neither intimidated nor forced the Brazilian Supreme Court to give in. In a historic and unprecedented decision in the country, has sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro by four votes to 27 years and three months in prison. for attempted coup d'état after losing the October 2022 presidential elections to Lula da Silva.

The sentence extends to all seven other members of the so-called "crucial core" of the coup plot, five of them military personnel, who have received sentences ranging from 18 to 26 years in prison. The exception is Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, Bolsonaro's aide-de-camp, who was sentenced to two years of open prison for collaborating with the investigations.

The decision cannot be reversed because The trial took place in the Supreme Court, but the defense will now file appeals to mitigate the sentences. Bolsonaro's lawyers, who in 2022 had signed a manifesto warning of the then-president's "collapse," will internationalize the case. Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest in Brasilia, and other convicted individuals will not be effectively imprisoned until the sentence is published and appeals are filed, which could happen within a month.

The location where the former president will serve his sentence will be determined by Judge Alejandro de Moraes, the rapporteur of the trial and the person who has led all the proceedings against Bolsonaro. He is also the person Trump punished with the Magnitsky Act, known as the "financial death penalty." This is a device for foreigners created for dictators who are enemies of the United States and accused of serious human rights violations, which Washington has now distorted.

Bolsonaro's lawyers, 70, will request that he remain under house arrest due to his "fragile health." There is a possibility that he will be held in a special cell in a Brasilia penitentiary, as his critics wish, or in a Federal Police headquarters, as was the case with Lula.

The far right activated in Congress

With street protests on the wane, Bolsonaristas are focusing their efforts on Parliament to release their leader from prison through the approval of an amnesty law that would benefit all those convicted. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who is emerging as the far-right candidate for the 2026 presidential election, is leading the efforts to unite the extremists and the group of pivotal parties known as Centrão. This former military officer and former Bolsonaro minister has toughened his stance. He asserts that his first step, if president, will be to pardon the coup plotters. "I don't believe in justice. This conviction is unjust because there is no evidence," he denounces.

The legal community and the left warn that the amnesty bill gives "carte blanche to impunity" because it explicitly states that even future coup attempts could benefit from it and extends its application to paramilitaries, known in Rio de Janeiro as "militia," who were the primary electoral stronghold of the entire Bolsonaro family. Lula da Silva has called for mobilization and says that, through parliamentary alliances, "the government will work against the amnesty, and it is important that people know this." For now, he has the key support of Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who has so far blocked the bill.

While the approval of the amnesty is currently unlikely, it is a scenario that cannot be ruled out, according to analysts. However, it would create a new institutional crisis that would increase political tension, as the Supreme Court has already leaked information that it contains "unconstitutional" aspects and would overturn it. With the Supreme Court's approval, Congress is already working on a second bill that would not include Bolsonaro or his core group of collaborators, but would mitigate the sentences for those convicted of the invasion of the headquarters of the three branches of government in Brasilia on January 8, 2023.

Washington threatens again

The executive of Lula da Silva and the Supreme Court prepare for a new wave of US retaliation. through trade sanctions that could extend to the diplomatic sphere. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has Latin America in his sights, assured X, minutes after the ruling, that his country "will respond accordingly to this witch hunt."

"The political persecution by sanctioned human rights violator Alejandro de Moraes continues, as he and other members of Brazil's Supreme Court have unjustly ruled to imprison former President Jair Bolsonaro," he said.

Donald Trump expressed his "great displeasure" with his ally's conviction. "It's terrible, very terrible, I think it's very bad for Brazil," he warned. "I've followed the trial and I know Bolsonaro very well, he's a foreign leader; he was very good, I thought he was a good president for Brazil. It's very surprising that this happened. It's very similar to what they tried to do to me and failed," the president said.

Bolsonaristas are demanding decisive action from the Republican administration. The efforts are being led by the former president's son and federal representative, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the United States. He is lobbying the most extremist sectors of Trump's supporters to expand the sanctions and has threatened to apply the Magnitsky Act to all the Supreme Court justices who voted to convict Bolsonaro.