Iran and the United States advance in an agreement to reopen Hormuz, but without "hurry"

BarcelonaThe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seems closer than ever. The United States and Iran, which have been negotiating for months through Pakistani mediators, have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen this maritime route, according to U.S. officials cited by the New York Times and Associated Press. Both sides are celebrating that there is consensus in some areas of the agreement, but they disagree on how and when the understanding should be announced.

Washington speaks of significant progress and takes for granted that the announcement of the agreement is a matter of days. This morning, the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, from New Delhi, celebrated that the American and Iranian negotiating teams have "something quite solid on the table" and that an agreement could be reached this very Monday.

For its part, Tehran confirms that there is a framework for negotiation, but specifies that the understanding does not necessarily have to be announced soon. The spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baghaei, has indicated that the understanding would precisely involve the end of hostilities, but that the nuclear issue would be left out of the equation, as well as the details of the management of the Strait of Hormuz (and, therefore, the possibility that Iran could charge a toll there).

In a message on Saturday evening, Donald Trump assured that the pact is "practically negotiated" and that only "details" remain to be finalized with Tehran. And he celebrated that this would involve the reopening of the strait. But this Sunday, the American president lowered expectations that the announcement was imminent and assured that he does not want "to rush into an agreement." "Both sides need to take their time and do it right. There can be no mistakes," the American president wrote in a message on his social network, Truth Social, adding: "Time is on our side." As long as the agreement is not "certified and signed," Trump assured that "the blockade will remain in force," referring to the blockade imposed by Washington on Iranian ports.

Trump's caution contrasts with the optimism expressed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who hours earlier had assured that "good news" was expected imminently, suggesting that the agreement could be close to being finalized. In contrast, the Tasnim agency, linked to the Iranian regime, has reported that the United States is obstructing part of the agreement.

One of the points of disagreement seems to be the enriched uranium reserves: while Trump has insisted that Iran must get rid of it at all costs, Tehran refuses. "We are willing to reassure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said this Sunday, but he stressed that Iran "will not make concessions" on the "honor and dignity" of the country, in reference to the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Meanwhile, details of the peace plan being discussed have been emerging. According to the draft obtained by the American media Axios, the first point would be a 60-day ceasefire, with the option to extend it. During this time, Iran would commit to reopening the Strait of Hormuz – which would allow the passage through which 20% of global oil exports previously circulated to resume – and to clearing naval mines from the area. In return, the United States would lift the blockade on Iranian ports and partially suspend economic sanctions to allow Tehran to temporarily resume oil sales.

At the same time, during these two months of truce, the delegations will take the opportunity to continue discussing more delicate issues on which they currently disagree, such as the nuclear issue. In this regard, American sources assure that the agreement includes the Islamic Republic's commitment never to manufacture nuclear weapons. On the other hand, the Iranian agency Tasnim, which has also leaked the details of the agreement, assures that no nuclear clause is included and that details about the Iranian program will be negotiated during the truce. Concessions that will likely be made in exchange for the total lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of Tehran's funds.

The Lebanese front, uncertain

Another element that initially concerned Iran was the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. How would this issue be resolved? According to Axios sources, the pact would have to include an end to the fighting. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not shown himself to be cooperative at all on this point, and reportedly expressed his concern in a call with Trump this Saturday.

In fact, Netanyahu continues to pressure the US president to squeeze his geopolitical rival as much as possible and align with his interests in the region. In a Telegram post, he stated that Trump agrees that the nuclear threat posed by Iran must be "eliminated," which would involve dismantling uranium enrichment facilities and withdrawing enriched uranium reserves from its territory. Furthermore, the Israeli leader says he has Trump's approval to defend himself against threats from all fronts, including Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Iran claims the right to manage Hormuz. This Sunday, Iran's armed forces stated that they will be responsible for the security of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz under a "new regional and global order" and "without foreign presence," in a move to boast about their control of the strait. The statement, signed by the commander of the central headquarters Khatam al-Anbiya, General Ali Abdolahi, also threatens to give a "harsh and infernal" response to any aggression against Tehran.