The surprise appearance of the Russian finance minister at the G-20 fuels doubts about Trump's intentions

WashingtonLast week was the secret trip to Moscow by the CIA director, John Ratcliffe. Now, it was the surprise appearance of the Russian finance minister, Anton Siluanov, at the G-20 meeting taking place this week in Asheville, North Carolina. Siluanov's presence at the meeting of central bankers and ministers from the group of nations has angered European members, who are already on edge due to the White House's secrecy about recent moves with Russia that are glimpsed behind the scenes. It had been four years, since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, that the Russian finance minister had physically attended the meeting. Coincidence or not, the last time a CIA director had traveled to Moscow before now was in November 2021.

European partners already pressured the summit's host, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to keep Siluanov out of the family photo, and German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil made it clear to journalists that he reprimanded his Russian counterpart for the invasion during the initial session. Another expression of the deeply concerned that is customary in Brussels these days.

Ratcliffe's trip last week raised a few eyebrows in Europe and fueled speculation about whether the Russian president is planning any further action against NATO allies. But outside the Old Continent, there is another piece that may be incentivizing this new rapprochement of the White House with the Kremlin: Iran and the economic war that Donald Trump's administration wants to launch in the face of the military front's stagnation. Russia maintains close economic and political ties with Iran, strengthened in recent years by the pressure of US sanctions, which have pushed both countries to shift their trade axis towards China.

When Bessent announced last week the framework of new sanctions he wants to apply against Tehran, he promised to attack all those foreign entities and structures that facilitate the regime in evading sanctions and smuggling oil. The financial maneuver, which Bessent has dubbed "Operation Economic Margin", seeks to provoke a "total global isolation" of the Iranian economy. All this, with the aim of managing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return the flow of energy trade to the pre-war stage initiated by the US and Israel.Although at the time of the announcement the focus was on China – the main importer of Iranian oil – achieving this isolation also implies that Russia will have to choose one of its main partners in the last four years. How Washington intends to achieve this remains a question. Last week Bessent avoided saying whether the Treasury would dare to cross certain lines with Beijing to successfully conduct its business.

The Treasury Secretary also opted for caution because it is planned that next September 24 the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, will meet with Trump at the White House. Predictably, the war in Iran will be one of the topics of conversation. Meanwhile, the White House is opening channels of conversation with Russian representatives, whether at the G-20 or the Kremlin. On Tuesday, Bessent said at the summit that he would very likely announce banking sanctions this week as part of his economic campaign against Iran.

US image problems

Beyond the standoff with the Islamic Republic, the G-20 also faces the risk of an economic slowdown and rising inflation, according to IMF forecasts. A panorama that includes the current situation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already been ongoing for half a year.

The image of the US as a stabilizing power has been severely damaged, not only as a guarantor of geopolitical order but also of economic stability. Beyond the blockade of Hormuz, there is another element that looms over the G-20 summit and the tug-of-war with the triad of China, Russia, and Iran: US debt has already soared to $40 trillion.

In this kind of rift that is emerging, on the other side of the world, China has been mirroring the G-20 held in North Carolina. In Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Xi Jinping sent a clear message to the Trump administration: Beijing has friends and influence, and can be a source of stability for the emerging "multipolar order." The Chinese leader appeared surrounded by his Russian and Iranian counterparts, precisely the two countries at war with the Western bloc. No American representative was invited to Bishkek, while in Asheville, Washington decided to offer a seat to the Russian finance minister, despite the rejection this gesture has provoked among the rest of its allies.