The Russians want Ukraine's total surrender: "We don't believe in peace agreements"

MoscowIt had been sixty years since Moscow had seen such heavy snowfall in a single winter. Citizens walk around with even more grim expressions than usual, hurrying to the frost-proof warmth of their homes. Virtually no one seems to find it obscene that, while radiators here are simmering 24 hours a day, their government... residents of large Ukrainian cities are suffering from the cold. After four years of war, the vast majority of Russians absolutely do not want Vladimir Putin to make any concessions to Volodymyr Zelensky and believe the conflict must end with Kyiv's surrender.

Only 21% of those surveyed in the latest report by the independent Levada Center support lowering the Kremlin's maximum demands to end hostilities. "I don't believe in peace agreements; they're just a temporary respite," says Sergei, 47, who works for one of the country's major oil companies. "Wars end with the surrender of one of the sides," he says. For Vera, a retiree in her seventies, returning the Ukrainian regions occupied by Putin's troops would be "a betrayal of the people who live in those territories." "They will not be able to live, then, they trust that they are already part of Russia," he laments.

According to Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, who spoke to ARA, this refusal to make concessions stems from a "misunderstanding" of the causes of the invasion. "The prevailing opinion in society is that Putin intervened to protect the Russian-speaking population," he points out. Another reason is the perception among citizens that his troops are taking the initiative on the battlefield, and therefore, the government's refusal to yield influences their opinion.

Vladimir Zvonovsky, president of the Foundation for Social Research, raises another factor: territory as a "significant value." Also speaking to ARA, he explains that in Russia, "the geopolitical narrative," the idea that "the more territory, the better," is widespread. Therefore, from his perspective, "peace means that the country must grow even more, and anything different will be seen as a retreat and a defeat."

Optimism is palpable in military circles. A veteran of the war in Ukraine, a high-ranking officer who prefers to remain anonymous, hopes for a peace agreement that will grant the Kremlin absolute control of Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. He predicts that Kyiv will be forced to exchange the areas it still administers in these regions to regain control of northeastern areas occupied by Russian troops, such as Sumi and Kharkiv. "Zelensky will have no other choice; he has no other options," he concludes.

More fatigue, more attacks

Since Donald Trump's arrival at the White House, roughly two out of three Russians favor negotiating a way out of the conflict. This is "one of the main indicators of war fatigue," notes Volkov, who sees how people fear another forced mobilization like the one in September 2022. "I really want it to end so everyone stops dying," says Vera. "There are normal people there [in Ukraine] too, not just these Nazis."

However, 59% of those surveyed support intensifying attacks against Kiiv, even using "new weapons".If peace is not achieved, this is the case of Gennady, a retiree from a neighborhood on the southern outskirts of Moscow, who doesn't understand why the Russian army hasn't yet been able to defeat the Ukrainians. "They could have finished them off with a barrage of bombs where the soldiers are, but they don't feel like doing it," he complains. "This weariness leads to support for more forceful actions," Volkov adds. "They would prefer to help end the conflict and, at least, have fewer people die on our side."

In Moscow, the war still doesn't exist beyond the bus shelters, where army enlistment is promoted, or the billboards on the main avenues. now dedicated to advertisements to recruit drone operators"New and indispensable," reads the poster, which shows a soldier wearing a helmet resembling virtual reality goggles. Often in the Russian capital, the front lines are viewed through the subjective lens and distance of a video game, via images circulating online of remote-controlled devices annihilating enemy soldiers.

Perhaps this is one of the reasons why in Moscow, 52% of the population opposes negotiations, 21 points higher than the national average. Volkov believes this is because military actions in the capital are "almost imperceptible." 61% of residents feel the war has barely affected them. Furthermore, the sociologist points out that Moscow has become a "pro-government" city in the last four years, as it is home to many state officials, while those who opposed the aggression and the Kremlin fled the country in 2022.

Fatigue is also translating into disillusionment. The level of monitoring of military events has fallen to its lowest point since the start of the invasion, and confidence in a near end to the war continues to plummet. "This year will definitely not end," predicts Sergei. "Sometimes I think it will never end," sighs Vera, aware or not that Putin is preparing Russia for a perpetual confrontation with the West while imposing a graveyard peace on its snowy streets.