The Iranian regime is opting for a unified strategy to survive the death of its key leaders.

BarcelonaUntil the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader at the start of the war, the atheist Ali KhameneiThe power structure of the Islamic Republic was quite clear. Khamenei had the final say on all relevant matters, such as the nuclear program and negotiations with the West. After his death, a power struggle erupted among the various factions within the regime. Ali Larijani, The director of the Supreme National Security Council, who died Tuesday in an Israeli attack, belonged to the more pragmatic faction, which favored negotiation with Washington. His assassination, along with that of other pragmatic leaders, strengthens the regime's hardliners, centered around the Revolutionary Guard, further delaying the end of the war with the US and Israel. In this context, attacks persist, and on Wednesday the regime's leadership was further weakened after Israel assassinated Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib in an early morning bombing raid on Tehran.

The balance of power and power struggles within the Islamic Republic, as is typical in autocratic regimes, are far from transparent. Furthermore, its highly complex institutional design, with its numerous institutions, adds to the complexity.sui generisTheir interconnected nature makes it difficult to interpret their internal political dynamics. However, experts generally agree that, since its founding in 1979, the Supreme Leader's power has steadily increased at the expense of the president, an elected official. And in the shadow of the Supreme Leader, another de facto power that has also been accumulating influence is the Guardians of the Revolution, the regime's praetorian guard and the main executor of the repression of the successive waves of protest in recent years.

Ali Khamenei's preeminence stemmed not only from the powers of the office recognized in the Constitution, but also from the leader's personality and his ability to forge relationships with other institutions. Therefore, it was expected that, at least at the beginning of his term, the new Supreme Leader would be a weaker and more easily influenced figure, which opened a veritable battle between the various factions of the regime, which The New York Times I was telling this week in a detailed article in accordance with several sources that participated in the election.

Broadly speaking, two coalitions formed. One backed the son of the late Supreme Leader, Mukhta Khamenei, to maintain his father's hardline and defiant approach. This group included the Revolutionary Guards, as well as other influential regime hawks, such as the Speaker of Parliament, Mohamed Ghalibaf. The other camp, which favored a more moderate figure, included, among others, Ali Larijani, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and former President Hassan Rouhani.

The story of the election is full of intrigue and twists worthy of a great thriller. Politically, the use of Ali Khamenei's last will and testament as a last-minute recourse to invalidate Mukhta Khamenei's election was employed. Ali Khamenei believed that his son's election as leader would jeopardize the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, as it could be accused of becoming a hereditary system, like the Shah's infamous monarchy. In any case, the pragmatic faction's efforts failed, and the hawks now rule the country.

Where is Mukhta Khamenei?

One thing that remains unclear is the state of health of Mukhta Khamenei and the extent to which he has truly assumed control of the country. Given his absence from public view, sources in Washington and Tel Aviv suggest he may be seriously wounded. Another possible interpretation is that he is in hiding to avoid another targeted assassination by Israel. Whatever the case, it seems evident that all decision-making power is no longer concentrated in the hands of the Supreme Leader, but rather that Iran is now under a collective leadership, with the Revolutionary Guard as the key institution. The death of Larijani, arguably the most influential individual in the regime, has only further strengthened the hegemony of the Guard, a paramilitary institution with tens of thousands of members. Incidentally, one of its top commanders, Golan Heights Soleimani, was also assassinated this Tuesday.

Beyond her low popularity—Mukhtaba Khamenei had barely made any public appearances before his election—a significant aspect weakening the current Supreme Leader's standing is her lack of prestigious religious credentials. According to the Constitution, the position must be held by a theologian of recognized prestige, that is, a Grand Ayatollah, a rank the last leader of the Khamenei dynasty had not yet attained. Thus, the true leadership of the Islamic Republic adds yet another layer of uncertainty to Iran's future.