The Iran war is becoming more complicated for Trump on the military and economic fronts

Beirut / WashingtonThe war against Iran has entered a new phase, one that is more uncomfortable for the United States and whose effects are no longer limited to the military sphere. The conflict has escalated with consequences that are being felt in energy markets, global logistics, and diplomatic alliances. One of the turning points has been The attack on the South Pars gas field, the world's largest, which accounts for about 70-75% of Iran's gas productionThe attack forced the shutdown of two major refineries in the area. The effect was immediate: natural gas and Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, causing serious disruptions in international energy markets.

Simultaneously, Iranian forces have intensified their operations against strategic infrastructure in the Gulf and neighboring countriesand have attacked energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other coastal states. In some cases, such as the Ras Laffan gas plant in Qatar, the destruction of parts of the facilities has reduced liquefied gas export capacity by nearly 20%, which has also contributed to market volatility and rising global prices. These actions show that the conflict is no longer a simple military clash between armies: it is a confrontation that directly affects the global economy and energy security.

On this broader chessboard, Iraq has solidified as a silent but constant front. Pro-Iranian militias have intensified drone and rocket attacks against US bases, forcing Washington to reinforce defenses and move troops in the region. Although it has not escalated into a conventional confrontation, each attack adds operational and political pressure on the US presence.

The White House faces a strategic dilemma. Donald Trump reiterated that there are no immediate plans to send ground troops to Iran, although he is keeping all options on the table. However, the Pentagon has deployed the 31st Expeditionary Force to the Middle East. marineA rapid reaction force of some 2,200 troops has been deployed to reinforce security at strategic points such as the Strait of Hormuz and respond quickly to any escalation. Additional attack aircraft and combat helicopters have also been deployed to act against any threat.

This Friday it was learned that Washington is sending 2,500 marine More in the region, with the deployment of three warships. The move comes after Trump assured yesterday that he would not send any more troops to the region. And after Netanyahu called for an invasion: "You can't make a revolution from the air alone, a ground operation is necessary, too," the Israeli prime minister said in a recorded speech.

Although a massive ground invasion is ruled out due to the high political and military cost, the Pentagon is keeping all options open. In parallel, alternative measures are being explored, such as blockading or even occupying Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. A potential blockade of Kharg would mark a significant escalation, as it would require a sustained presence of troops and naval units, with possible immediate repercussions on oil prices and Iran's domestic economy. It is estimated that it could temporarily reduce Iran's GDP by between 10 and 15% and increase inflation.

"A paper tiger"

In this context of escalating tensions, Trump has also launched direct criticisms of his allies. The US president called NATO members "cowards" for refusing to join his military efforts in the conflict with Iran, and warned that without the United States, the alliance becomes a "paper tiger." Trump has called for support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for oil traffic, and the lack of response has heightened tensions between Washington and its European partners, many of whom have reiterated that they will not participate directly in a conflict outside of NATO's defensive mandate. Hours later, before departing for Florida, Trump escalated his rhetoric, asserting that he sees the withdrawal of US military bases in Spain and other Alliance countries that do not cooperate as justified.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned his British counterpart that allowing the United States to use UK bases would be considered "participation in aggression," a sign that Tehran is prepared to escalate the conflict if it perceives direct involvement from Western allies. Hours later, London authorized the use of the bases.

The economic effects are being felt beyond the Middle East. Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries are experiencing inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices.Meanwhile, marine insurance premiums have doubled and some shipping companies have canceled or diverted routes to avoid the Gulf. Governments have called for a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, warning that a prolonged conflict could stifle global economic growth if energy prices remain volatile. In the United States, the price of oil also continues to climb. Beyond the plan to try to contain the damage by escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury Department has already lifted sanctions on Russian oil and is even considering lifting some on Iranian oil. This was stated by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview with Fox News. If implemented, it would be a controversial measure: Washington would be buying oil from its enemy in the midst of war. Meanwhile, the conflict is expanding. In Lebanon, the intensification of Israeli attacks has opened a second front, forcing Iran to recalibrate its indirect influence strategies, and uncertainty about the security of the Strait of Hormuz keeps shipowners and consumer countries on constant alert.

The war against Iran is no longer defined solely by the number of targets destroyed or the number of deaths on one front. It is also measured by its impact on the global economy, energy markets, US domestic politics, and tensions between allies and adversaries. In this new phase, each attack has broader and more difficult-to-contain repercussions, and no single actor appears to have total control of a conflict that, for now, remains open, unpredictable, and highly uncomfortable for Washington.