Pieter Wezeman: "Iran is alone militarily"

BarcelonaPieter D. Wezeman (Netherlands, 1977) is a researcher on arms exports and military expenditure inStockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI),one of the international references in terms of armament in the world.

What military capabilities does Iran have after recent events?

— It's extremely difficult to make an assessment. On the one hand, there's what we thought Iran could do before last week, and on the other, what we've discovered it's not capable of. We assumed it had a significant arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones capable of counterattacking Israel. And yes, Iran has many, but very few have managed to penetrate Israeli air defenses. Moreover, Israel has managed to destroy many missiles on the ground in Iran. We thought it would be difficult for Israel to sustain a prolonged military operation over Iranian territory, but it has been conducting incursions for over a week and a half, and it appears to have destroyed or evaded Iran's air defense system. We don't know if Israel has suffered losses in these campaigns, but there is no evidence of substantial aircraft losses.

And Israel? Can it afford a long-term conflict?

— Israel has been able to sustain the war in Gaza, the war against Hezbollah, operations against the Houthis, and also operations in Syria. Considering all this, it should be difficult for Israel to sustain attacks over the long term. On the other hand, we must not forget that Israel is receiving a constant and continuous supply of military equipment and aid from the US, which should help them do so over a longer period of time. But of course, it is crucial for Israel to have dragged the US into the conflict and for them to be supporting it.

What could be the range of an Iranian missile attack?

— The range of Iranian missiles is about 2,000 kilometers, enough to reach Israel and potentially parts of Europe's periphery. They can also hit anywhere in the Middle East: the Gulf, Iraq, Jordan... So, in theory, Iran has the capacity to do a lot of damage. The problem is actual effectiveness. In recent attacks, few missiles have overcome Israeli defenses, which are highly advanced and have been successfully tested over time. This calls into question what Iran can actually achieve, although I may have to swallow these words if they improve their systems [laughs]. There is also the debate about navigation in the Gulf. Iran could try to block the Strait of Hormuz with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, or even small boats, as it has done in the past. Would it be effective? We don't know. But it would only take a few real hits to disrupt navigation in one of the most vital commercial arteries on the planet.

And what about nuclear weapons? 

— Iran claims to have 60% enriched uranium, and technically it could bring it relatively quickly to 90%, the level needed for a nuclear weapon. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the declared amount would be enough to build about ten nuclear devices, in theory. However, there are many unknowns: where is this material? Have they preserved it all? Do they still have operational enrichment capabilities? Do they have the necessary facilities and components? Do they have the actual capacity to manufacture functional nuclear weapons and, above all, to operationalize them? That is, could they place them on a missile or an aircraft and use them as a deterrent? Historically, countries with fewer resources than Iran today—like North Korea 20 years ago, South Africa 45 years ago, or Israel more than half a century ago—have managed to build nuclear arsenals. Therefore, although we don't know exactly where Iran stands today, it is plausible to think that it could follow a similar trajectory. What no one can know is how long it might take.

An approximation?

— Nobody knows. It depends on what he was able to hide and preserve after the attack. Whether he has secret stockpiles, hidden facilities, or whether everything has to be rebuilt. If you have to start from scratch, we could be talking about years, but if you have secret elements, it could be much faster. I wouldn't dare make any predictions.

Are recent Israeli attacks on government targets in Iran a means of regime change?

— Just listen to Netanyahu: he has clearly stated what he wants to achieve and that this is an option on the table. There are enormous risks: if Iran responds in kind, it could escalate rapidly. It's rare for a country to attack high-ranking military figures as Israel has done. However, Iran has 85 million inhabitants, and a significant portion of them are willing to go to war. The question is to what extent the population is willing to defend the current regime. It's difficult to know the true basis of support for the regime, as was seen in Iraq in 2003, when the system rapidly collapsed.

Can the situation in Iran be compared to that of Iraq in 2003?

— There are possible comparisons, but also major differences. Saddam Hussein's regime was less entrenched and accepted within Iraq than the Iranian system. The risk of regime change in Iran ending in chaos, as in Iraq, Syria, or Libya, is very high. Iran is a complex, large country with natural resources and a history of popular resistance. All of this suggests that imposing a new order would not be easy.

The US has intervened directly to help Israel. Will anyone help Iran?

— Good question. The interesting thing about Iran is that it has been subject to a UN arms embargo for about ten years, which has based its military capability on what it can produce domestically and on political connections with its allies—in other words, it has strengthened its military industry. The only notable exception has been its relationship with Russia, where Iran has exported drones. Technically, Russia might be willing to supply weapons to Iran, but it needs the weapons for the war in Ukraine. Therefore, it doesn't appear that there is any actor currently clearly willing to support Iran militarily, either by selling weapons or offering aid. Iran is truly alone in that regard.

And what about the Iranian-allied militias?

— It's very difficult to determine their capabilities. Israel has shown extreme force against Hamas, revealing the group's limits. In the case of Hezbollah, Israel has conducted highly sophisticated intelligence and sabotage operations. These achievements suggest weaknesses on the other side. Still, it's worth remembering that Hamas surprised Israel with the initial attack, and these militias could be preparing other unexpected actions. Their capacity for surprise should not be underestimated.