The disarmament of Hamas, the Gordian knot

Almost four months after the ceasefireThe landscape of the Gaza Strip remains one of almost complete destruction from north to south and east to west. Despite daily promises of reconstruction, the reality on the ground is quite different, and so far no one has lifted a finger to provide stable housing for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who have lost everything.

On Monday, the work was completed the return of the last of the Israeli corpses who remained in the Gaza Strip, a circumstance that was celebrated with great intensity in the country. Benjamin Netanyahu took the opportunity to make a public address where he clarified, among other things, that the next step will be the disarmament of Hamas, not the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

More than two years after the terrible attack by Islamist militants in October 2023, which caused the deaths of 1,200 Israelis, Netanyahu has managed to keep the attention of most of the Jewish population off the investigation into the failures committed by the authorities.

Eager to remain in power, Netanyahu is preventing the investigation from being led by the Supreme Court justices, so it will be carried out by a commission directly dependent on the government; in other words, Netanyahu will be investigating himself. The opposition protests have been fruitless, which means that, in all likelihood, the commission will exonerate Netanyahu.

Returning to Gaza, it is highly improbable that the United States will ignore Netanyahu's demands. Therefore, it is no surprise that Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner has confirmed from Davos The Israeli prime minister's words that without Hamas's prior disarmament there will be no reconstruction.

It seems the Americans are looking for a formula that appears to be a compromise between both sides, while respecting Netanyahu's wishes. Thus, there might be some gesture in some remote part of the Gaza Strip where reconstruction begins, even if it's not a significant reconstruction.

If Hamas agrees to renounce its weapons, the Palestinians will lose any possibility of pressuring Israel. On Tuesday, Netanyahu insisted that he will in no way allow the creation of a Palestinian state in Gaza. And as for the West Bank, the annexation continues day by day with the connivance of the international community, including Europe, and not just the United States.

Dilemma within Hamas

The United States and Israel are offering Hamas leaders amnesty and free passage to Turkey and Qatar in exchange for the organization's complete disarmament and the demilitarization of the entire Gaza Strip. Within Hamas, there is a debate about this initiative that has not yet been definitively resolved. Naturally, no one is talking about elections in the Palestinian territories. Of course, if the polls were opened, Hamas would win by a wide margin, as happened in the last elections two decades ago, not only in the Gaza Strip but also in the West Bank. To further complicate matters, Israeli leaders have stated that if Hamas has not voluntarily disarmed within three or four months, the Israeli army will intervene to achieve this by force, a circumstance that further complicates the short- and medium-term developments.