The abstentionists, key in the victory of the far right in Germany

BarcelonaThe elections in Saxony-Anhalt, a small state in eastern Germany, have managed to exceptionally shake up politics across the entire country. A detailed analysis of the result allows for an X-ray of the profile of voters for Alternative for Germany (AfD), which took 43.8% of the total votes, double that of the 2021 elections. We review the keys to a historic election day that could mark the path for the upcoming elections in Germany.

The AfD doubles its votes and the CDU collapses

The 43.8% of the votes collected by Alternative for Germany represents an increase of 23 percentage points over its last result in Saxony-Anhalt. A victory that has the CDU on the other side of the coin. The traditional right-wing party has lost half of the votes it received five years ago. The Greens claim their small victory, with an increase of three points, while the Social Democrats breathe much easier than their government partners in Berlin because they have escaped the protest vote.

Mobilization of abstainers

This Sunday's elections stand out for having recorded a record turnout of 78%, while five years ago it was 60%. And one of the keys to the AfD's victory has been precisely its success in mobilizing non-voters. According to an analysis by the polling institute Infratest Dimap for the ARD network, the AfD obtained the votes of 170,000 people who had abstained from voting in 2021. In other words, of the 291,000 new voters for the party, more than half (58%) did not go to vote in the previous regional elections.

But the AfD has also stolen voters from practically all the other parties. The most affected is the CDU, which has lost 82,000 voters to the far-right party. The only group that has taken support from the AfD has been the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has entered the state parliament for the first time. According to an analysis by the newspaper Die Welt, the SPD and The Greens, which have improved their results, have benefited from the anti-AfD campaign, also stealing votes from the CDU. In total, the Christian Democrats have lost more than 130,000 voters.

Success in practically all age groups

The AfD has also posted good results in practically all age groups. Only among those over 70 years old have they obtained a result tied with the Christian Democrats (32% and 31%, respectively). The far-right has obtained its best result among voters between 35 and 44 years old and those from 45 to 59. But the figures are extraordinary in general.

Steal the workers' vote from the social democrats

Regarding the distinction between professional groups, the AfD wins in all categories, but is especially strong among the so-called blue-collar workers, with 61% of the votes. The Social Democratic Party, which had traditionally been the party of the workers, has particularly suffered from the rise of the far-right in this area: only 5% of workers in this group have voted for the SPD. It has collected its least good results among pensioners, although it has still obtained support eleven points higher than the CDU.

According to the breakdown of voters by gender, the AfD has been particularly popular among men: 50% voted for the far-right party compared to 39% of women.