Sweden combines the carrot and the stick to expel refugees: it offers them more than 30,000 euros to leave.

BarcelonaFor years, Sweden earned a reputation as one of the world's most generous countries to refugees. First came the Chileans fleeing Augusto Pinochet's regime; then the refugees from the Balkan wars; and ten years ago, the Syrians escaping the civil war and Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship. In 2015, the Scandinavian country received some 163,000 asylum seekers; only Germany took in more. Now, this open-door policy has been completely abandoned, especially since the current conservative government came to power in 2022. with the necessary crutch of the far-right party Sweden Democrats.

At the time of the formation of the government, which regularly cooperates with the far right, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson promised a "paradigm shift" to reduce the number of immigrants arriving in Sweden, usinga concept introduced years earlier in DenmarkDuring its nine-month term, the government has implemented various measures to achieve this goal. Most of these policies increase restrictions on obtaining asylum or Swedish citizenship. But that's not all; the government is combining incentives with a carrot. To encourage refugees to return to their countries of origin, a significant modification to the so-called "repatriation grant" comes into effect this January. Until now, the government offered 10,000 Swedish kronor (about 900 euros) to provide some financial support to those who decided to leave, but from now on the amount will be 350,000 kronor per person (about 32,000 euros). "Voluntary repatriation" is aimed at people who have a residence permit in Sweden for protection reasons and who decide to return to their country of origin or go to another country where they have the right to live.

In recent years, voluntary repatriations have been minimal—authorities have received 270 requests and granted only eight in the last four years. With this change, they intend for the number to grow exponentially. The decision was made despite advice against it from a government-appointed panel of experts, who argued that promoting repatriation would hinder the integration of migrants into Swedish society. "The potential gains do not appear significant enough to justify the risks," the panel warned.

Municipalities' Rebellion

Both immigration authorities and the public employment service have been tasked with increasing the number of people leaving the country, and the government is also requiring social services to provide guidance for voluntary repatriation. To try to boost these returns, the government appointed a national coordinator, who at the end of September sent a letter to all municipalities in Sweden with the intention of working together to achieve this. But a large number of mayors, including those of the country's three largest cities (Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö), refused to meet and criticized the measure.

The mayor of Jokkmokk, in the far north of the country, was the first, and his response went viral. "Thanks, but no thanks," wrote Roland Boman, posting it on social media, where he called the measure "an un-Swedish way of considering people and their worth." It's not just cities governed by Social Democrats or other opposition parties; in many cases, the rejection stems from practical rather than ideological reasons.

According to public broadcaster SVT, the strongest resistance has emerged precisely in the north of the country, where many municipalities have refused to cooperate with the government on this policy. This region is much less populated than the center and south, and has a much greater need for workers.

"Paradigm shift," even among the Social Democrats

The financial incentive to encourage repatriations is part of the "paradigm shift" announced by the prime minister when they formed a government with the support of the Sweden Democrats in the fall of 2022. Over the past three years, the government has implemented several measures to reduce the number of migrants and refugees. "When this government came to power, I thought they might implement half of the policies they announced. But they've surprised me; they've implemented or are in the process of implementing almost everything. They've gone full steam ahead, and now, with the elections on the horizon, they're accelerating even more," Henrik Emilsson, an expert at BK_SLT_LNA, told ARA. "The rhetoric has changed: before, we wanted to be an example for Europe, we wanted to focus on rights. Now Sweden's goal is to be the toughest country in Europe on migration," he says. "It's the same parties, who have shifted their focus from 'not just to all societies.'" Only three small parties (Greens, Left, and Liberals) oppose these restrictive policies, but they only represent about 15% of the parliamentary seats. "There's been a complete turnaround in just a couple of years," Emilsson summarizes. He predicts that in the election campaign, the Social Democratic Party will promise to maintain the same stance as the conservative government and will only have to make some concessions if forced to form a coalition with more left-leaning parties. Among the measures implemented, he highlights that only short-term temporary permits are now issued to refugees and that numerous requirements have been introduced for obtaining citizenship. Conditions for obtaining work permits have also been tightened: the minimum wage required has increased from 13,000 kroner (about €1,200) per month to 27,360 kroner (about €2,500, or 80% of the average Swedish wage). The government, which wants to increase it even further to around 35,000 kroner (€3,200), emphasizes its desire to attract "talent" (highly skilled researchers and employees) rather than unskilled immigrants. It has also proposed making family reunifications more difficult.

Emilsson warns that the government still wants to go further in punishing migrants: it intends to reduce social benefits for non-EU foreigners, eliminate permanent residency, and make it easier to deport them if they commit a crime.

"There has been a big change in the number of asylum seekers arriving in Sweden. Before, refugees usually passed through Germany to Sweden, and now they stay in Germany." Last year, the government boasted that its policies are working: for the first time in half a century, Sweden recorded more departures than arrivals.