Spain is no longer alone in NATO: European allies' opposition against Trump's military spending is growing

BrusselsOne of the images that occupied the most front pages of the NATO summit in The Hague last year starred Pedro Sánchez. In the family photo of the allied leaders, the Spanish Prime Minister was seen slightly displaced to a corner, a little apart from his counterparts. Although it was a small detail, it was symptomatic and perfectly portrayed the solitude of the socialist leader in the Atlantic Alliance, dominated by the United States, now under Donald Trump.

The Spanish government was the only one that refused – although only verbally, because it signed the summit's conclusions anyway – to commit to increasing military spending to the target demanded by Donald Trump: 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Despite pressure from the United States and other European partners, Sánchez maintains that he does not intend to allocate more than 2.1% to defense.

Now, however, the picture is different. The Spanish Prime Minister is no longer the only one to express criticism of this rearmament or to acknowledge difficulties in bearing this military expense. Several allies have joined Sánchez's club – albeit with a much more moderate and disguised tone – a few days before this year's NATO summit, which is being held in Ankara (Turkey) this coming Tuesday and Wednesday.

One of Trump's main allies in Europe, Giorgia Meloni, has also spoken out. Beyond of the multiple confrontations that the two leaders have had for the Pope and for the war in Iran, the Italian government has made public statements in which it shows skepticism about its ability to achieve the percentages in military spending required by the Pentagon. The Italian Minister of Defense himself, Guido Crosetto, has stated that it is "impossible" for Rome to reach 5% of GDP in military spending by 2035 and that, at most, it can reach 3.5%.

In addition, Meloni, who leads a country with a pacifist public opinion and the second-highest debt in the European Union, has repeatedly complained to the European Commission to apply exceptional fiscal measures to facilitate a large increase in military spending and, on the other hand, to hinder similar initiatives on other issues, such as the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. In fact, at the request of Meloni and Sánchez, Brussels has allowed the deficit ceiling of 3% to be exceeded by 0.2% to provide energy aid, while for major rearmament it allows the rate to rise by up to 1.5% more.

Italy is not the only ally with substantial weight in the military entity that is showing signs of non-compliance. Another of the great European military powers, the United Kingdom, is presenting difficulties, which came to light in the midst of Keir Starmer's government crisis. Although London promises that it intends to reach 5% of GDP, the previous Minister of Defense, John Healey, published a letter in which he presented his resignation because the executive did not have a credible "roadmap" to reach the rate demanded by Trump and criticized that the Treasury was imposing a spending limit that made it impossible for the United Kingdom to fulfill the commitment signed in The Hague last year. However, after this controversy, Starmer has presented this week a new budgetary increase for defense, although it also does not guarantee that it will meet NATO's objective.

The dissenters of the East

The vast majority of Eastern European countries are the ones that have rearmed at a faster pace and are pressuring the rest of the allies to follow the same path. Many of these states feel more threatened than those in the southwest of the continent by Vladimir Putin's expansionism, both due to their past in the Russian orbit and their geographical proximity. However, there are also a few partners who maintain a rather ambiguous relationship with Brussels and Moscow, and find themselves in a difficult position. And precisely some of these states, such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, and even Slovenia, are the ones who see the great rearmament as less necessary to protect themselves from potential Russian attacks and openly reject achieving NATO's military spending targets.

Furthermore, in the case of Slovenia, the Atlantic Alliance has admonished it for including investments in other fields, such as infrastructure, border controls, or cybersecurity, in the calculation of military spending. A practice that does not seem exclusive to the Slovenian country and for which there are already indications that other member states are resorting to the same strategy to try to inflate the rate. In fact, the Italian government announced a recalculation according to which – theoretically, now yes – they are on the right track for NATO military spending increase.

In this regard, diplomatic sources from NATO admit that several allies have asked to review the criteria that mark what can be included as military spending. Among these states are mainly those that are most reluctant to the military rearmament of Europe, such as Spain or Italy. The United States, however, flatly refuse to accept what they understand would, in practice, allow European partners to spend less than they agreed at the NATO summit in The Hague last year.

Furthermore, allies are obliged to present NATO with the path of increasing military capabilities every so often and, in the event that these assessments conclude that there are countries that are not complying with it, the White House has already threatened to make them public, which is expected to be a new cause of political shock between Trump and the European leaders. In fact, the United States has redoubled pressure for European partners to increase military spending in recent days, and it is expected that the American president will remind them in person – it remains to be seen in what tone – at the NATO summit next week in Turkey.