Republicans cancel vote in Congress to prevent Trump's war powers from being limited

WashingtonIt has taken almost three months since Donald Trump started the war in Iran for the United States Congress to show signs of life. On Tuesday, the Senate managed to approve for the first time a resolution to try to force the US president to end a conflict that the legislature never authorized. The milestone was possible due to the change of mind by four Republican senators, some of whom had already warned the tycoon that if the campaign exceeded 60 days, they would withdraw their support. This Thursday, a similar resolution was also expected to successfully pass the vote in the House of Representatives. But the Republicans cancelled it at the last minute, given the certainty that they would not have enough support to overthrow it.

The abrupt retreat has exposed the fracture that has opened within the party as a result of the military campaign. It also reflects how the spokesperson in the House, Republican Mike Johnson, is losing control over his congressmen.

Despite the testimonial nature –Trump has veto power, and will surely use it–, the desire to unblock the War Powers Resolution represents a significant shift in the dynamics of Republican lawmakers. The slow but steady trickle of Republicans joining the Democratic initiative is a sign of weariness with the president's war.

The fragile ceasefire with Iran has led to a low-intensity conflict, but one that remains just as problematic for the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz remains completely blocked due to a lack of guarantees and security; a situation that is reproduced at the negotiating table. Diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and third countries are trying to bring Washington and Tehran's positions closer, while the US president continues with the same coercive rhetoric as always. The problem, however, is that at the country's gas stations, the price of a gallon already exceeds an average of $4.50, a figure unaffordable for many citizens, and which, if not resolved before November, could cost many Republican congressmen their seats.

Furthermore, the operation's bill already amounts to $25 billion, as revealed by the Pentagon's comptroller, Jay Hurst, during his first appearance before Congress since the military campaign began. Although the administration denies it, the new Defense budget foresees a 40% increase by 2027 to replenish a large part of the ammunition used. This is a budgetary item that requires Congressional approval and, for the moment, the change in the vote of many Republicans does not augur a smooth process.

A new ultimatum

Having surpassed two months of war has also put Republican congressmen in a difficult position to argue. According to federal law, after 60 days of campaign, the executive is obliged to ask for permission from the legislature and, if not, must withdraw the troops. The White House insists that technically the 60 days have not been met, because a truce has been in effect since April 8 and, therefore, the rule does not apply. At the same time, Trump said on Monday that he had been only "an hour" away from ordering a new attack against Iran but had stopped it at the request of Gulf allies. In fact, he has once again given a vague ultimatum to the ayatollahs to reach an agreement. The deadline moves between this weekend and early next week.

Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican who has so far voted against war powers resolutions, already expressed his frustration this week with the Trump administration's position, and especially with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. "The current statu quo demonstrates how incompetent Pete Hegseth is," Tillis told reporters.

Republican primaries

Now, it is still too early to interpret this shift of votes as a symptom of the legislators' willingness to rebel against Trump. The senators who have switched to the Democratic side, with the exception of one, are those who have always tended to be most critical of the president. The novelty in the Senate was the vote of Bill Cassidy, representative of Louisiana, who did not make the turn until this week when he lost the primaries after the tycoon lent his support to his rival.

In fact, this week's result in the Kentucky primaries has already made clear the cost of opposing the president. Republican Thomas Massie, an opposition voice to the tycoon, lost last Tuesday against Ed Gallerin, his rival whom Trump had been sponsoring to get rid of Massie. The leader and his allies invested more than 35 million dollars in the campaign to bury the black sheep. The result of these primaries was also a test to see if it was still possible within the party to go against Trump and survive.