Signs of fatigue in the US Congress over Trump's war in Iran

WashingtonIt has taken almost three months since Donald Trump started the war in Iran for the United States Congress to show signs of life. On Tuesday, the Senate managed to approve for the first time a resolution to try to force the American president to end a conflict that the legislature never authorized. The achievement was made possible by the change of vote by four Republican senators, some of whom had already warned the tycoon that if the campaign exceeded 60 days, they would withdraw their support. This Thursday, a similar resolution is expected to also successfully pass the vote in the House of Representatives. Some congressmen who until now had dynamited other attempts in the lower house have already indicated that on this occasion they will facilitate the processing of the resolution.

Despite the testimonial nature –Trump has veto power, and will surely use it–, the unblocking of the War Powers Resolution represents a significant shift in the dynamics of Republican legislators. The slow but steady trickle of Republicans joining the Democratic initiative is a sign of weariness with the president's war.

The fragile ceasefire with Iran has led to a low-intensity conflict, but one that remains just as problematic for the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz remains completely blocked due to a lack of guarantees and security; a situation that is reproduced at the negotiating table. Diplomatic efforts by Pakistan and third countries are trying to bring Washington and Tehran's positions closer, while the American president continues with the same coercive rhetoric as always. The problem, however, is that at the country's gas stations, the price of a gallon already exceeds $4.50 on average, a figure unaffordable for many citizens, and which, if not resolved before November, could cost many Republican congressmen their seats.

Furthermore, the cost of the operation already amounts to $25 billion, as revealed by the Pentagon comptroller, Jay Hurst, during his first appearance before Congress since the military campaign began. Although the administration denies it, the new Defense budget foresees a 40% increase by 2027 to replenish a large part of the ammunition used. This is a budgetary item that requires the approval of Congress, and, for the moment, the change in the voting intentions of many Republicans does not augur a smooth process.

A new ultimatum

current shows how incompetent Pete Hegseth is," Tillis told reporters.

Republican primariessaid on Monday that he had been only "an hour" away from ordering a new attack against Iran but had stopped it at the request of Gulf allies. In fact, he has once again given the ayatollahs a vague ultimatum to reach an agreement. The deadline is moving between this weekend and early next week.

Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican who has so far voted against war powers resolutions, already expressed his frustration this week with the Trump administration's position, and especially with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. "The current statu quo demonstrates how incompetent Pete Hegseth is," Tillis told reporters.

Republican primaries

However, it is still too early to interpret this shift in votes as a sign of legislators' willingness to rebel against Trump. The senators who have switched to the Democratic side, with one exception, are those who have always been most critical of the president. The novelty in the Senate was the vote of Bill Cassidy, representative of Louisiana, who did not make the turn until this week he lost the primaries after the tycoon lent his support to his rival.

In fact, this week's result in the Kentucky primaries has already made clear the cost of opposing the president. Republican Thomas Massie, a vocal opponent of the tycoon, lost last Tuesday against Ed Gallerin, his rival whom Trump had been sponsoring to get rid of Massie. The president and his allies invested more than 35 million dollars in the campaign to bury the black sheep. The result of these primaries was also a test to see if it was still possible within the party to go against Trump and survive.