Russian attacks accelerate Europe's drone revolution

BrusselsIt has been a long time since Vladimir Putin's regime initiated a hybrid war against European partners. Disinformation campaigns, support for destabilizing political movements, computer hacks, and, lately, especially incursions with drones into the airspace of the European Union and NATO countries. Faced with these types of attacks, which are becoming increasingly common, European allies are accelerating the development and industrialization of unmanned aircraft.

As has been observed in the war in Ukraine, as well as in the conflict in the Middle East, drones have become a key weapon and European leaders have now fully accepted this. The consensus in Brussels on the importance of this technology for the security of the European bloc is absolute, especially for defending against possible aggressions from the Russian army. This is why both EU and NATO partners have already launched several initiatives to boost the drone industry, and European allies have set the goal of creating what is known as a "drone wall" in the coming years.

During this time, while the "wall" is being built, diplomatic sources from NATO and the EU assure that they can defend themselves from Russian drone attacks with current capabilities without problems, but they agree that it is not the most efficient way. That is to say, a large amount of resources are spent to shoot down unmanned aircraft that have a low cost. "It is not sustainable in the long term to keep swatting flies with missiles," summarizes a diplomatic source.

Cost imbalance

Chris Kremidas-Courtney, who researches defense policies at the European think tank EPC, draws a comparison between the costs of manufacturing a drone and the costs of shooting one down, based on the war in the Middle East. A cost that is broadly extrapolable to the conflict in Ukraine. The difference is enormous. The one-way attack drones used by the Iranian regime cost between $20,000 and $50,000 each, but the American-made missiles used to intercept them cost millions of dollars: Patriots, around four million each, and THAADs, between 12 and 15 million. The imbalance is even more exaggerated when considering the network costs of the equipment that supports the Patriots or THAADs, and the radars they are connected to, which can cost over a billion dollars.

Both EU and NATO sources, as well as experts, point out that the efficient use of resources – which, of course, are not infinite – determines the defense power that allies have, and for this reason they are pushing to end or reduce this cost asymmetry. In fact, Kremidas-Courtney points out that this has been one of the weaknesses of the US military in the war it has started in the Middle East, and recalls that "each interceptor fired must be replaced through complex supply chains that can take years to replenish." In contrast, drones can be manufactured "quickly" and in a "relatively simple" and "cheap" way.

Ukraine, spearhead

Drones are no longer a technology of future wars. They are a very real present-day reality and, in fact, are among the main factors that have allowed Ukraine to hold its own against Russian troops on the battlefield, according to NATO diplomatic sources. However, EU member states are still lagging behind in the race to develop the unmanned aircraft industry, and for this reason they see it as key to coordinating with Kyiv to assimilate its knowledge in the sector.

In fact, it has become one of the strong arguments in European institutions in favor of Ukraine's accession to the European Union, and at the Conference on the Recovery of Ukraine in Gdansk (Poland) this week, the President of the European Commission used it again. "Ukraine's battlefield experience is unparalleled, its companies are among the most innovative in the world," said Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday, who also highlighted that Ukrainian and German companies are already working together to develop drones. Furthermore, the head of the EU executive announced that 6 billion euros from the 90 billion macro-loan that the EU will send to Ukraine will be specifically allocated to the drone industry.

In this regard, the researcher of the think tank European Bruegel Jacob Funk Kirkegaard admits that most of the capabilities in interceptors that Europe has are located in Ukraine, but assures that the rest of the continent is already starting to produce these technologies, thanks in large part to integration with Ukrainian companies. However, even though the expert sees these advances as "good news", he assures that right now there is no power that is "completely protected" with anti-drone systems. "It is uncomfortable, but it is the reality," states Funk Kirkegaard.

The researcher gives as an example "the problems" that the Gulf countries have had, which have the support of the United States, pto defend themselves from Iran's drone attacks, even though Iranian unmanned aircraft "are less sophisticated" than Russian ones. Furthermore, adds Funk Kirkegaard, the European territory "is very large" and at the moment "it is impossible to cover everything with anti-drone defense systems".

Faced with this lack of protection, which has become increasingly evident in recent months, Brussels tried to promote the creation of a drone wall at the European Union level. However, a lack of unity caused the initiative to fail. Thus, there are only projects to which member states that consider it most urgent are adhering – especially those in the east and north of the continent – and outside of the community institutions, which see how they are incapable of advancing joint measures in military matters. "There are advances in Europe regarding drones, but they are not happening at the level of the entire European Union, but rather through coalitions of states and state initiatives," concludes Funk Kirkegaard.