Putin flexes his nuclear muscle and displays new weapons: What does it mean?

MoscowExperts cannot recall a time when Russia has placed so much emphasis on demonstrating that its supermassive weapons work. In just one week, Vladimir Putin has boasted about successfully testing two nuclear-capable missilesThe Burevestnik missile and the Poseidon submarine-launched torpedo. But are they as powerful as the Russian president claims? To what extent do these tests pose a threat to global strategic stability? And what is the Kremlin trying to achieve by showcasing them precisely during the most delicate period in relations with the United States since Donald Trump's return to the White House?

The Burevestnik is a nuclear-powered cruise missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. According to the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, it traveled 14,000 kilometers during the test and is undetectable by US defense systems. However, as Russian nuclear weapons specialist Pavel Podvig explains, the United States possesses the technology to intercept such missiles, and if the intention is for them to be launched as a retaliatory weapon, it is highly likely they will have been destroyed beforehand as the target of the initial attack.

"In the 1960s, countries decided that these missiles didn't make much sense. From a military point of view, they have little value," Povdig also asserts. For him, the intercontinental ballistic missiles created during that era, which unlike cruise missiles fly higher and are unguided, remain the most effective for delivering nuclear weapons.

The situation is more or less the same with the Poseidon. Designed to "destroy important enemy economic installations in coastal areas" and to cause "devastating damage" by creating "radioactive contamination zones," experts don't see it as offering any major technical innovation. According to Nicole Grajewski, a specialist in atomic weapons from Russia and Iran, it represents a "continuity of the concept" of Soviet nuclear submarines.

A political challenge

These are, therefore, systems that serve a political purpose but fail to fulfill their primary military function. "Now there is a political imperative to intensify the confrontation with the United States, and therefore we need the largest possible missile," explains Podvig. Experts suspect that Putin intends to pressure Donald Trump into agreeing to extend the New START treaty, which limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons in each country's arsenal. It expires in February of next year, and although Russia has offered the United States a one-year extension, Washington has not responded. Moscow has repeatedly expressed its unease about the US president's missile shield project. "The Kremlin seems genuinely fearful of the United States' ability to use its nuclear attack and defense strengths to coerce Russia into submission," notes John Foreman, former British defense attaché in the Russian capital. Therefore, the testing of the new weapons can be interpreted as Putin's way of asserting himself and drawing attention to the importance of nuclear deterrence. When he unveiled the Burevestnik and Poseidon in 2018, he said: "Nobody wants to listen to us. Now you will."

However, despite Donald Trump's reaction of announcing vague "nuclear tests"Researchers do not believe we can speak of a nuclear escalation. "I don't think we've moved up any steps, but we certainly won't move down any either," Podvig laments. "This step demonstrates that both sides still believe that more nuclear weapons will bring greater security," he adds. A belief, in his opinion, "mistaken and dangerous." The Kremlin claims that its exercises have nothing to do with the United States and, at the same time, following Trump's announcement, is working to clarify that it is only testing weapons capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and that it is in no way experimenting with atomic energy. Furthermore, Putin always insists that he is mirroring Washington's actions and that, therefore, any step aimed at containment, but also any temptation to move towards an arms race, will be the responsibility of the United States.

The specialist does not directly link Russian trials in the discussion about the supply of Tomahawk missiles to UkraineAlthough Putin is taking advantage of the current tension to push for understanding between the two powers, both Foreman and Grajewski maintain that, until there is an agreement on ending the war, the United States will not want to negotiate a moratorium on the nuclear treaty. The British defense expert also warns that the weakening of the Russian conventional army due to the attrition of the conflict will cause the Russian president to rely even more on nuclear weapons. Thus, while the long rebuilding of his military forces continues, nuclear activity is likely to increase.