Putin fears Armenia's escape

For the first time, Vladimir Putin is concerned about the results of parliamentary elections in Armenia like those of this Sunday. If the polls are confirmed and the prime minister, the liberal Nikol Pashinyan, renews his mandate, the Kremlin may find itself with an Armenia willing to stop being a Russian protectorate.

Armenia has been a satellite of Russia since it joined the Soviet Union in 1922, carrying the grief of the genocide caused by Turkey in 1915 – in the midst of World War I – during which more than a million and a half people of Armenian identity scattered across the Anatolian peninsula were exterminated. For the Turks, it was an ethnic group carrying all sorts of evils, similar to what Jews represented for the Nazis. It is not at all strange, then, that in 1939, on the eve of the German-Soviet pact that spurred World War II, Hitler did not refrain from exclaiming loudly: "And who remembers the Armenians now?"

Hitler shouted as loudly in 1939 as Putin was silent in 2015, during the memorial events for the centenary of the genocide in the Anatolian communities. The master of the Kremlin ignored the massacre and, if necessary, did not hesitate to defend the supposed rights of Azerbaijan – of Turkmen identity – when demanding the annexation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, even though it was predominantly Armenian. Annexation consummated three years ago, in the autumn of 2023. Even in the time of the USSR, Moscow sought to maintain the best relations with Azerbaijan, a way to preserve access to the gas and oil reserves of the Azerbaijani republic, the most powerful in the Caucasus.

Thus, Vladimir Putin has in mind that energy control of the Caspian is as important as the submission of Armenia. And he knows that a prime minister like Nikol Pashinyan will not hesitate to question Armenia's membership in the CSTO – the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russian version of NATO – nor in the EAEU, the Eurasian Economic Union, also controlled by the Kremlin. Pashinyan, however, is a pragmatist willing to avoid sterile conflicts with the Russians. That is why he has already warned the Armenian population that they must give up Nagorno-Karabakh and make peace with Azerbaijan. Because, in fact, it was a serious historical mistake to claim it in 1988 in the midst of perestroika, and that is how it ended up losing political reason and strength.

Approach to the EU

However, what is expected is that Pashinyan will not change his schedule full of contacts and meetings with European Union leaders. To the point that a few weeks ago Yerevan, the Armenian capital, hosted the summit of the European Political Community – an organization that tries to overcome community limitations – which was attended by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. A presence that the Kremlin took as an offense to the memory of Armenians who fought against Nazism on Soviet soil.

The designation of Nikol Pashinyan's liberals as potential enemies of the Putinist regime raises the possibility that Moscow has been intervening with its hackers in this Sunday's electoral process. The Kremlin cannot afford to lose Armenia at a time when it has not managed to impose itself on Ukraine, and it threatens with what can do the most harm: cutting off the supply of gas and oil while repeating the refrain that hurts the most: “Without us you will become extinct as a people”.