Le Pen capitalizes on the chaos due to the protests in France, according to the polls, and would obtain double the votes of Mélenchon

BarcelonaThe wave of protests in France has further polarized the landscape of the presidential elections in May. The first polls after Saturday's demonstrations, featuring police violence and riots, have consolidated the lead of Marine Le Pen, who would face off in the second round against Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed. The National Rally (RN) candidate would obtain double the votes of the left-wing candidate, according to the latest survey by the conservative newspaper Le Figaro.

Marine Le Pen would be well ahead of the trio of pursuers, with between 34% and 38% of the votes in the first round. The France Unbowed (LFI) candidate would obtain between 15% and 20% of the votes, ahead of the centrist candidates. In the second round, Le Pen would win by a very wide margin (68% against 32%). Mélenchon would be ahead of the former prime minister and traditional right-wing candidate, Édouard Philippe, who would obtain between 12% and 16%, always behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Emmanuel Macron's government has sought to place the responsibility for the riots and destruction on what it calls the ultra-left, and by extension on the figure of Mélenchon. “Ultra-left groups have organized the violence,” accused the prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu. President Macron lashed out against the “factionalists,” and Éric Ciotti, the mayor of Nice, from the RN, denounced the “red fascism.” Authorities report 3,000 businesses affected, 2,400 arrested, and 1,000 police officers injured. Le Pen herself has sought to ride the wave of protests by asserting that “the extreme left has taken legitimate social demands hostage,” and her number two, Jordan Bardella, has spoken of “professionals of chaos.” Philippe directly accuses LFI.

Mélenchon has condemned the looting, but at the same time has denounced that “screens are flooded with images of violence,” which cover up the fact that in the streets “tens of thousands of people have demonstrated peacefully.” He has also held the government responsible for an “aberrant response that opened the door to chaos.” In fact, French media have confirmed that at Saturday's protests, the police fired tear gas before the riots began.

The clash between the government and the insubordinates benefits Le Pen. RN has not participated in the protests and is amplifying its discourse as a party of order: Bardella has promised to “restore order” after the presidential elections. And Le Pen rubs her hands, asserting that the chaos pushes moderate voters to choose her ballot. The crisis favors RN, which can project the image that it is the only capable alternative to an exhausted Macronism. And furthermore, the chaos takes the trial against the RN leader for corruption or the latest accusations of antisemitism in its ranks off the agenda.