Nazanin Armanian: "It's the end of the ayatollahs' regime."

Nazanin Armanian, an Iranian political scientist, has been forced into exile twice. The first time was during the Shah's reign, and the second time under Ayatollah Khomeini. Armanian, sentenced to death for belonging to the Afghan Women's Democratic Organization and the Communist Party, came to live in Barcelona, ​​from where she fled due to threats from the regime after they located her address. She now lives in Madrid.

What does what happened today mean?

— It's a conflict with different layers and interpretations: global, regional, and internal. But the United States and Israel saw that it was the moment to attack. We have to understand where we're coming from. Obama and Netanyahu already sabotaged the nuclear program in 2010 with a cyberattack. Over the years, they've brought down Bashar al-Assad, Hamas, and Hezbollah, all economically sponsored by Iran. In 2024, they disabled the country's entire defense system. And in June, they killed thirty high-ranking members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. These were the ones who ran the country and controlled the economy, which is why it collapsed. To the point that inflation skyrocketed.

And we have seen unprecedented protests.

— What political scientists define as a state disappeared last June. There was no electricity or water. That's why the protests were no longer just made up of students and women, but also shopkeepers from the bazaars. But those who govern belong to a small Shiite sect; they've retained a hard core of military officers and clerics who are against everyone. And of course, the Americans and Israelis have seen this as the perfect moment to dismantle the regime. It's an utterly unequal war. On one side, you have the world's leading military power, and on the other, a Third World regime of ayatollahs.

Could this attack bring down the regime?

— It will end the regime. I'm already speaking almost in the past tense, because it is the end of the regime. The only ones who know where [Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Khamenei is right now are the Mossad [Israeli secret service]. I think they'll want to add some element of spectacle to the death so Netanyahu can take credit. He'll be able to go down in history as the one who killed one of the most brutal criminals in the Middle East. And if he isn't dead, he will die at all costs.

Who can take power if the regime falls?

— We're in a situation similar to 1978. The Shah's regime had destroyed all the organizations, so when a crisis erupted, there was no leader for the revolution. That's why the United States ended up finding Ayatollah Khomeini, because what was most important during the Cold War was installing someone who wasn't a communist. They took him to France, three months of publicity and propaganda, and presented him as the leader of the revolution. Now they're dusting off Reza Pahlavi [the son of the Shah overthrown in the 1979 revolution]. Because the reality is that there are no progressive leaders to control the situation. That's why I think the next regime will be Reza Pahlavi with an iron-fisted military officer, or if not, simply a military officer.

But don't the Iranians remember what the Shah's regime was like?

— Do Spaniards have any memory when they vote for Vox? The most widely read newspaper in Iran is funded by Saudi Arabia, which supports the Shah's son. And the Shah's regime was a semi-secular dictatorship; now we're facing medieval Islamic fascism. The previous regime only killed you if you opposed them politically. Now they execute you for drinking or dancing. They just hanged a 25-year-old woman accused of killing her husband. She was married to him, much older than her, when she was nine. We're facing one of the most barbaric regimes in the world, and people can compare and say: well, in the Shah's time we could dance and study.

Do you see a risk of civil war?

— No, I don't think that's the risk. Besides, different peoples—Arabs, Turkmen, Kurds—have always lived together in Iran without any problems.

What is the United States seeking?

— The United States' biggest battle is with China. And there are two important issues in the Persian Gulf. Nineteen million barrels of oil leave that region every day, and a large portion of it goes to China. If the US wants to maintain global hegemony, controlling the Persian Gulf is vital. The second issue is the Belt and Road Initiative. China has established itself in virtually every port in the region to facilitate trade and expand its influence. The United States can try to prevent this. Furthermore, the US is losing the technological and commercial battle against China. So what is it relying on to maintain its hegemony? Military force.

And can China intervene to help?

— No. China would only intervene in a conflict if it involves Taiwan.

Is it true what Trump says, that Iran has rebuilt its nuclear program and is therefore a threat?

— The regime intends to manufacture nuclear bombs; now they're threatening a "weapon that will surprise the Americans"—I imagine they're referring to a chemical weapon. But the regime doesn't have the capacity to manufacture nuclear weapons because the Israelis and Americans have already dismantled this program. Therefore, this argument is a lie, just like Saddam's claims about weapons of mass destruction.

And what is Israel seeking?

— Several things. To normalize its presence in the region. Islamism has been a blessing for Israel, because through it they have been able to eliminate the Palestinian national project and also dismantle Lebanon, Iraq, and now Iran. But behind this there are also economic interests. Off the coast of Gaza they found a huge gas reserve. British Petroleum found it. And there is a gas pipeline project to transport it from Iran to the Mediterranean. Ending the regime guarantees trade routes. And it is also important for the United States, because to fight against China they must weaken Russia, which is Xi Jinping's main partner right now. And the best way to do that is to prevent it from selling oil to European countries. How? By replacing it with another source. The only ones who can do that near the EU are the Persian Gulf countries.

What is the regional balance today?

— Iran is already out of the picture. Tensions may now shift to Turkey. I'm not talking about open conflict, but rather tensions we're seeing through Syria. An ally of Al-Qaeda is now in power there; traditionally, Turkey has been more pro-Turkish, and Israel doesn't want Turks or anything like Syria.

Does this mean Netanyahu has finally achieved his dream?

— That's what they've always wanted, yes. But Israel isn't a state; it's the 52nd state of the United States. Islamists started saying they wanted to wipe Israel off the map years ago. What nonsense is this? What do they intend, to wipe the United States off the map? Not even the Chinese, the Russians, and all the allies of the former USSR combined could do it.

As an Iranian, how are you?

— I am worried about the political prisoners. There are tens of thousands of people whom the regime or Israel could massacre. In its latest attack, Israel already targeted Evin Prison, where progressive prisoners are held—those who oppose the restoration of the Shah's monarchy.